# US Montalbanaise vs Racing 92 Winner

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 29% across 10 contracts — refreshed 6 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/rugbyfra14match
Updated: 2026-05-03T14:35:23.750Z
Category: general
Status: active

## Headline

- Probability: 29% (liquidity-weighted across 10 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 27% / Polymarket 48% — 21pp spread
- 24h volume: $798

## Bound contracts (10)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Racing Avellaneda | 42¢ | ±0 | $450 | kalshi | /markets/racing-avellaneda-vs-huracan-winner-racing-avellan-kalshi-kxargpremdivgame-26may03rachur-rac |
| Tie | 33¢ | ±0 | $104 | kalshi | /markets/racing-avellaneda-vs-huracan-winner-tie-kalshi-kxargpremdivgame-26may03rachur-tie |
| Huracan | 23¢ | +2pp | $99 | kalshi | /markets/racing-avellaneda-vs-huracan-winner-huracan-kalshi-kxargpremdivgame-26may03rachur-hur |
| Tie | 29¢ | +2pp | $77 | kalshi | /markets/racing-club-vs-montevideo-city-winner-tie-kalshi-kxurypdgame-26may03rcmtor-tie |
| Racing Club | 45¢ | ±0 | $62 | kalshi | /markets/racing-club-vs-montevideo-city-winner-racing-club-kalshi-kxurypdgame-26may03rcmtor-rcm |
| Racing Louisville | 12¢ | +3pp | $4 | kalshi | /markets/gotham-vs-racing-louisville-winner-racing-louisvil-kalshi-kxnwslgame-26may03gotrac-rac |
| Gotham | 22¢ | +1pp | $2 | kalshi | /markets/gotham-vs-racing-louisville-winner-gotham-kalshi-kxnwslgame-26may03gotrac-got |
| Tie | 11¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/gotham-vs-racing-louisville-winner-tie-kalshi-kxnwslgame-26may03gotrac-tie |
| Winner: Racing de Chivilcoy | 48¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/liga-nacional-de-bsquetbol-winner-racing-de-chivil-polymarket-0xbf45c73384266b9819638ab5756b06a4db3e2c3b206aa5cfc0dac837fefb4d88 |
| Montevideo City | 23¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/racing-club-vs-montevideo-city-winner-montevideo-c-kalshi-kxurypdgame-26may03rcmtor-tor |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-27 | 49 |
| 2026-05-03 | 27 |

_7 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-01 · Racing Avellaneda +4pp 38→42¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-01 · Tie +3pp 25→28¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Tie +3pp 28→31¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Racing Louisville +3pp 6→9¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Gotham +3pp 5→8¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/rugbyfra14match
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=rugbyfra14match

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.