# Chicago Hounds vs Old Glory DC Winner

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 50% across 1 contract — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/rugbymlrmatch
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:50:40.261Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-24

## Headline

- Probability: 50% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Kalshi (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $0
- Resolved: yes

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Seawolves | 50¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/old-glory-dc-vs-seattle-seawolves-winner-seattle-s-kalshi-kxrugbymlrmatch-26may10oldsea-sea |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 50 |

_1 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This contract reflects the probability that the Chicago Hounds will win the championship, currently assessed at 4%. The low probability suggests market participants view the Hounds as significant underdogs relative to other remaining contenders. Key drivers include team performance metrics, playoff seeding position, and remaining opponents in their path to the title. The contract will be resolved once the championship series concludes and a winner is determined. Recent trading activity shows liquidity concentrated in other matchups, particularly around the Western Conference Finals and lower-seeded teams' advancement odds, indicating market focus elsewhere. The outcome depends on the Hounds' ability to advance through successive playoff rounds against stronger-seeded competition and win the final series.

### Key factors

- Chicago Hounds' playoff seeding position and strength of schedule relative to other conference contenders
- Win probability differentials in earlier playoff rounds they must navigate before reaching the championship
- Historical performance and betting market consensus on their roster talent compared to favorites
- Recent form and injury status of key players that would affect playoff performance
- Volume and pricing patterns in related contracts (Arizona, San Diego matchups) indicating relative confidence in Hounds versus alternative paths to the title

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/rugbymlrmatch
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=rugbymlrmatch

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.