# Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by...

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 30% across 1 contract — refreshed 8 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/russia-capture-all-of-hryshyne
Updated: 2026-05-03T18:50:59.389Z
Category: geopolitics · Topic: ukraine
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-31

## Headline

- Probability: 30% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $167

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 30¢ | ±0 | $167 | polymarket | /markets/will-russia-capture-all-of-hryshyne-by-may-31-polymarket-0x45c18bb127c2727a967eb657248b98bc530389e38348fff050e2a4ab60e53392 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-24 | 22 |
| 2026-04-26 | 57 |
| 2026-05-03 | 31 |

_10 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-01 · May 31 −13pp 45→32¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-28 · May 31 −11pp 52→41¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-26 · May 31 +9pp 48→57¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-30 · May 31 +6pp 39→45¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-27 · May 31 −5pp 57→52¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that Russian forces will capture the entire town of Hryshyne by an unspecified deadline. At 31%, traders assess this outcome as unlikely but plausible within the relevant timeframe. The current level reflects the pace of Russian advances in eastern Ukraine and the defensive capacity of Ukrainian forces in the region. Upward pressure comes from Russian territorial gains; downward pressure from Ukrainian counteroffensives or stabilized front lines. The most relevant catalyst is the actual rate of Russian progress toward Hryshyne over the coming weeks, which will either confirm expectations of slow advances or signal acceleration. Market participants are also tracking broader developments in military aid flows to Ukraine and changes in combat intensity that could affect the speed of territorial changes.

### Key factors

- Current Russian force positioning relative to Hryshyne and documented daily territorial changes in the surrounding area
- Ukrainian defensive infrastructure and reported troop deployments in and around Hryshyne
- Rate of attrition and equipment replacement for both Russian and Ukrainian forces in this sector
- Western military aid deliveries to Ukraine and their stated impact on defensive capability
- Recent trend of Russian offensive progress versus stabilization or Ukrainian counterattacks in adjacent territory

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/russia-capture-all-of-hryshyne
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=russia-capture-all-of-hryshyne
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/ukraine

## License

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