# Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by...

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 20% across 1 contract — refreshed 8 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/russia-capture-all-of-huliaipole
Updated: 2026-05-03T18:50:57.252Z
Category: geopolitics · Topic: ukraine
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-31

## Headline

- Probability: 20% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 20¢ | −4pp | $1K | polymarket | /markets/will-russia-capture-all-of-huliaipole-by-may-31-polymarket-0xe43234c3b1057bd3ab009403013c3dc85577550fc1cd3b6dcc4187c63174a91d |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-22 | 55 |
| 2026-04-26 | 49 |
| 2026-05-03 | 19 |

_12 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-01 · May 31 −12pp 37→25¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-26 · May 31 −10pp 59→49¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-27 · May 31 −8pp 49→41¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-28 · May 31 +7pp 41→48¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-29 · May 31 −7pp 48→41¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This contract estimates an 18% probability that Russian forces will capture the entirety of Huliaipole by a specified deadline. Huliaipole is a town in southeastern Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia Oblast that has been subject to contested fighting. The low probability reflects the current military stalemate and the challenging logistics of capturing and consolidating control over populated areas. Market participants appear skeptical of rapid Russian territorial advances, likely because front-line movement has been incremental despite sustained offensive operations. The main factors influencing this probability are the pace of Russian advances relative to Ukrainian defensive capabilities and the rate of attrition on both sides. As the deadline approaches, market prices typically compress toward either 0 or 100 cents depending on whether Russian forces achieve measurable progress toward surrounding or taking the town.

### Key factors

- Current front-line positions and distance of Russian forces from Huliaipole as of the deadline date
- Historical rate of Russian territorial gains in this sector over the past 3-6 months compared to what would be required to meet the deadline
- Ukrainian military capability to maintain defensive positions or execute counteroffensives in the Zaporizhzhia region
- Availability of reinforcements, ammunition, and logistics supporting Russian offensive operations in this theater
- Whether Russian forces establish siege conditions or complete encirclement of the town before the resolution date

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/russia-capture-all-of-huliaipole
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=russia-capture-all-of-huliaipole
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/ukraine

## License

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