# Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by...

> Closed. Last odds frozen 6 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/russia-capture-all-of-pokrovsk
Updated: 2026-05-22T19:20:39.252Z
Category: geopolitics · Topic: ukraine
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-05-31

## Headline

- Probability: 97% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $62K

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 97¢ | +47pp | $62K | polymarket | /markets/will-russia-capture-all-of-pokrovsk-by-may-31-polymarket-0x1a68c8ec37bcd702979b5fa03883191767f896e77a0930479e0d9bfbb5933997 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 27 |
| 2026-05-14 | 20 |
| 2026-05-21 | 94 |

_18 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-21 · May 31 +47pp 47→94¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market reflects a 94% probability that Russian forces will capture the entire city of Pokrovsk, located in eastern Ukraine's Donetsk region, by May 31, 2026. The high probability suggests traders expect rapid Russian military advances over the next ten days. The assessment likely reflects current front-line positions, Russian offensive momentum in the region, and Ukrainian defensive capacity. Resolution depends on whether Russian forces achieve complete territorial control of Pokrovsk's administrative boundaries by the deadline. A Ukrainian counteroffensive, significant reinforcements, or supply disruptions could lower this probability, while continued Russian territorial gains would support it. The outcome will be determined factually on May 31 by verified military control maps from independent sources or official announcements.

### Key factors

- Current distance between Russian front lines and Pokrovsk's municipal boundaries, measurable via satellite imagery and military reports
- Rate of Russian territorial advance in Donetsk region over the past 30 days compared to the distance remaining to Pokrovsk
- Ukrainian force deployments and defensive preparations reported in the Pokrovsk area and availability of reinforcements
- Status of Russian supply lines and logistics supporting offensive operations in the region
- Weather conditions and terrain obstacles between current front lines and Pokrovsk that affect military mobility

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/russia-capture-all-of-pokrovsk
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=russia-capture-all-of-pokrovsk
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/ukraine

## License

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