# Will Russia capture all of Ternuvate by...

> December 31, 2026 leads at 77%, runner-up 43% across 20 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 5 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/russia-capture-all-of-ternuvate
Updated: 2026-05-03T18:06:01.299Z
Category: geopolitics · Topic: ukraine
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-31

## Headline

- Leader: December 31, 2026 at 77%
- Runner-up: December 31 at 43%
- Outcomes: 20 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $39K

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 77¢ | ±0 | $9K | polymarket | /markets/will-russia-capture-kostyantynivka-by-december-31-polymarket-0x7e50b661a2bedc670bcf32fc9ece12616f6fc4fba5dbe8526292bf3447374009 |
| December 31 | 43¢ | ±0 | $3K | polymarket | /markets/will-russia-capture-all-of-kostyantynivka-by-decem-polymarket-0x627ed310dc3977b2d71d96a4f2fccd6050553f6f165efd6c29578f5678f3f863 |
| December 31 | 39¢ | −3pp | $155 | polymarket | /markets/will-russia-capture-all-of-lyman-by-december-31-polymarket-0xb4aea2573ecac699851b042d39a99b26e43aed7a6b024a4bc827ba220f9fbb78 |
| December 31 | 36¢ | −4pp | $352 | polymarket | /markets/will-russia-capture-all-of-vovchansk-by-december-3-polymarket-0x25e961b73889e80bb2e8e7e9611aa573cf5f7cae0d7db8a488256cf758f0f1ca |
| December 31 | 35¢ | +4pp | $39 | polymarket | /markets/will-russia-capture-all-of-prymorske-by-december-3-polymarket-0x9051c339493374b28c5348337a3928890127228cac85dc270b928c805789052e |
| September 30 | 33¢ | +2pp | $140 | polymarket | /markets/will-russia-capture-all-of-vovchansk-by-september-polymarket-0xbc43a765b1fb2a7ffabf7d57cc64be3754a07f6dbbb657130b520875f204c772 |
| September 30 | 32¢ | +1pp | $106 | polymarket | /markets/will-russia-capture-all-of-stepnohirsk-by-septembe-polymarket-0xcd5f739ee4218c44531ef49e98de3b33271c4dc6799499301df0f9f0a14d0474 |
| June 30, 2026 | 31¢ | −1pp | $6K | polymarket | /markets/will-russia-capture-kostyantynivka-by-june-30-2026-polymarket-0xb23587fc1e319cdf9aaa12c503f6b2149c820c3d64ded3c98b4ff6719cac78fe |
| May 31 | 30¢ | ±0 | $518 | polymarket | /markets/will-russia-capture-all-of-hryshyne-by-may-31-polymarket-0x45c18bb127c2727a967eb657248b98bc530389e38348fff050e2a4ab60e53392 |
| May 31 | 28¢ | +6pp | $2K | polymarket | /markets/will-russia-capture-all-of-pokrovsk-by-may-31-polymarket-0x1a68c8ec37bcd702979b5fa03883191767f896e77a0930479e0d9bfbb5933997 |
| May 31 | 20¢ | −4pp | $936 | polymarket | /markets/will-russia-capture-all-of-huliaipole-by-may-31-polymarket-0xe43234c3b1057bd3ab009403013c3dc85577550fc1cd3b6dcc4187c63174a91d |
| September 30 | 13¢ | +2pp | $284 | polymarket | /markets/will-russia-capture-all-of-prymorske-by-september-polymarket-0x27f3e18c14d722d384fdc20f7ed0f7038b19d56d191b36da72762ebbf17f3081 |
| May 31, 2026 | 10¢ | ±0 | $3K | polymarket | /markets/will-russia-capture-kostyantynivka-by-may-31-2026-polymarket-0xc13c31b0e5d48e978cc5c66318659ecab10e9882543e87a5f4eea5a5f889bdc2 |
| May 31 | 7¢ | +2pp | $214 | polymarket | /markets/will-russia-capture-all-of-stepnohirsk-by-may-31-polymarket-0xc5a2aa043b85c4c665dbb2360d844bc7b154d632e15f0f5beb1ec255a9149807 |
| May 31 | 6¢ | −9pp | $189 | polymarket | /markets/will-russia-capture-all-of-vovchansk-by-may-31-polymarket-0xf7ffb48c52e71a70eda74c2982342a3b70832c0eb7ed461a09fad631d62ad3c7 |
| May 31 | 5¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/will-russia-capture-all-of-drobysheve-by-may-31-polymarket-0x86b4ee84271d5ed9c77322c4b422c6de6225a14498b0798203320be2b0826599 |
| June 30 | 4¢ | +1pp | $11K | polymarket | /markets/will-russia-capture-all-of-kostyantynivka-by-june-polymarket-0x445895d68e167bf457e645ceab3b3e45661ea5d90d5453ede6d107e651377e4b |
| June 30 | 4¢ | −4pp | $2K | polymarket | /markets/will-russia-capture-all-of-kupiansk-by-june-30-polymarket-0x7ef13602915dcf8f51d5f95b712ecdb9fe3ff71c7f89e76afb098dbdaab973bf |
| May 31 | 3¢ | ±0 | $504 | polymarket | /markets/will-russia-capture-all-of-prymorske-by-may-31-polymarket-0xadcbaba35d6a440db92ba0a30151fa000e4e13f3b0bbf78139e41db8497a7b55 |
| June 30 | 3¢ | ±0 | $21 | polymarket | /markets/will-russia-capture-all-of-lyman-by-june-30-polymarket-0x72e3f72e2a21d601b73d188674f5fe6b2baf3d8c709f5d77c9835f124a71f96e |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | December 31, 2026 | December 31 | December 31 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 80 | 36 | 49 |
| 2026-04-19 | 82 | 35 | 40 |
| 2026-04-25 | 79 | 36 | 39 |
| 2026-04-26 | 80 | — | 38 |
| 2026-05-01 | 79 | — | 40 |
| 2026-05-03 | 78 | 41 | — |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-28 · May 31 +38pp 11→49¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-29 · May 31 −37pp 49→12¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · December 31 +21pp 16→37¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-28 · May 31 +17pp 4→21¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-01 · May 31 −13pp 45→32¢ · polymarket

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/russia-capture-all-of-ternuvate
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=russia-capture-all-of-ternuvate
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/ukraine

## License

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