# Will Russia capture Bilytske by...

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 4% across 1 contract — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/russia-capture-bilytske
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:41.034Z
Category: geopolitics · Topic: ukraine
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-31

## Headline

- Probability: 4% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 4¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/will-russia-capture-bilytske-by-may-31-polymarket-0xfdea893b9de9f4d631fff8b5b68dd30e2b38937260c2f45901c0608c14f9027a |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-22 | 34 |
| 2026-04-25 | 24 |
| 2026-05-01 | 12 |
| 2026-05-07 | 4 |

_11 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · May 31 −7pp 12→5¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This contract reflects a 12% market expectation that Russian forces will capture Bilytske by a specified deadline. The relatively low probability suggests market participants assess significant obstacles to rapid territorial gains in this sector. The main factors influencing this level are the current pace of Russian advances in eastern Ukraine and the logistical capacity to sustain offensive operations. Related Polymarket contracts show higher probabilities for capturing nearby Kostyantynivka by year-end (77%) versus June 30 (27%), indicating markets expect slower progress if any occurs. The primary uncertainty resolver will be battlefield developments over the coming weeks, particularly whether Russian forces can maintain momentum or face defensive stabilization from Ukrainian forces.

### Key factors

- Current front-line positions and the distance of Bilytske from active Russian-held territory determine feasibility within the timeframe
- Russian artillery, manpower availability, and supply line sustainability directly affect operational tempo and territorial progression rates
- Ukrainian defensive capacity, including fortification status and troop concentration in the sector, creates friction against rapid Russian advances
- The contrast between lower near-term probabilities (10-27% by June 30) and higher year-end expectations (77% by December) indicates markets expect slow or stalled progress in coming months
- Weather, seasonal conditions, and infrastructure damage affect operational planning and logistics through the specified deadline period

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/russia-capture-bilytske
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=russia-capture-bilytske
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/ukraine

## License

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