# Will Russia capture Havrylivka by...

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 5% across 1 contract — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/russia-capture-havrylivka
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:44.039Z
Category: geopolitics · Topic: ukraine
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-31

## Headline

- Probability: 5% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 5¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/will-russia-capture-havrylivka-by-may-31-polymarket-0x20ddfa8e3939c1c45459f297c9fc00a4c4d64eb687041dba4e03be8e6039c8ea |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-22 | 23 |
| 2026-04-25 | 11 |
| 2026-05-02 | 7 |
| 2026-05-07 | 5 |

_14 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This contract estimates a 6% probability that Russian forces will capture Havrylivka by a specified date. The low probability reflects the town's current distance from active front lines and the pace of Russian territorial advances in the region. Market participants appear to be pricing in modest Russian progress but significant Ukrainian resistance and logistical constraints. The assessment could shift based on changes in front-line momentum, particularly around nearby Kostyantynivka where separate contracts show higher probabilities for later deadlines, suggesting traders expect slower-than-near-term advancement. Real-time developments in Donbas combat operations and any major changes in military supply or personnel would materially affect expectations for Havrylivka's capture timeline.

### Key factors

- Current distance and terrain between Russian-held territory and Havrylivka relative to recent monthly advance rates
- Status of Ukrainian defensive positions and available reserves in the sector
- Russian logistical capacity and whether offensive operations are concentrating on nearby Kostyantynivka instead
- Contract expiration date specificity—shorter deadlines show much lower probabilities (5-10%) while December 2026 contracts for nearby Kostyantynivka show 77%, indicating timeline matters significantly
- Comparison to related contracts suggests Havrylivka is considered lower priority or higher difficulty than Kostyantynivka capture

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/russia-capture-havrylivka
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=russia-capture-havrylivka
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/ukraine

## License

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