# Will Russia capture Kindrativka by...

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 5% across 1 contract — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/russia-capture-kindrativka
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:43.470Z
Category: geopolitics · Topic: ukraine
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-31

## Headline

- Probability: 5% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 5¢ | −4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/will-russia-capture-kindrativka-by-may-31-polymarket-0x82b1b23cde12ef055f59302b09422c9d630b1ed46449ab04022f8a8e71425c84 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-22 | 32 |
| 2026-04-25 | 20 |
| 2026-05-02 | 9 |
| 2026-05-07 | 5 |

_12 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · May 31 −5pp 14→9¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · May 31 −4pp 9→5¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market reflects a 7% probability that Russia will capture the town of Kindrativka by a specific deadline (likely June 30, 2026, based on related contract pricing). The low probability suggests market participants believe Russian forces face significant obstacles to capturing this objective within the timeframe. The current level reflects recent frontline dynamics in eastern Ukraine—particularly Russian advancement rates in Donetsk and Luhansk regions, Ukrainian defensive capabilities, and available military resources on both sides. The main factors pushing the probability would be accelerated Russian advances or Ukrainian defensive weakening; factors reducing it would include Ukrainian counteroffensives or stabilized front lines. The resolution will depend on actual territorial control verified by geospatial intelligence, military reports, or occupation announcements before the deadline.

### Key factors

- Russian ground forces' current advance rate in Donetsk region and whether it sustains or decelerates over the next 1-2 months
- Ukrainian defensive positions and reserve forces available to hold or contest territory around Kindrativka
- Comparison to pricing on nearby towns (Kostyantynivka at 27% for June 30 suggests market views Kindrativka as harder to reach or lower priority)
- Supply of weapons, ammunition, and military aid flowing to Ukrainian forces during the relevant timeframe
- Weather and seasonal conditions affecting military operations in May-June 2026

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/russia-capture-kindrativka
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=russia-capture-kindrativka
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/ukraine

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.