# Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...

> Closed. Last odds frozen 14 h ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/russia-capture-kostyantynivka
Updated: 2026-06-19T01:20:20.801Z
Category: geopolitics · Topic: ukraine
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: December 31, 2026 at 92%
- Runner-up: September 30, 2026 at 86%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $8K

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 92¢ | +1pp | $1K | polymarket | /markets/will-russia-capture-kostyantynivka-by-december-31-polymarket-0x7e50b661a2bedc670bcf32fc9ece12616f6fc4fba5dbe8526292bf3447374009 |
| September 30, 2026 | 86¢ | +4pp | $684 | polymarket | /markets/will-russia-capture-kostyantynivka-by-september-30-polymarket-0x271e1d96693db79b42a277dc5f64b61a72bc1a0fad85586fd28c7d89b9b96231 |
| June 30, 2026 | 29¢ | −4pp | $6K | polymarket | /markets/will-russia-capture-kostyantynivka-by-june-30-2026-polymarket-0xb23587fc1e319cdf9aaa12c503f6b2149c820c3d64ded3c98b4ff6719cac78fe |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | December 31, 2026 | September 30, 2026 | June 30, 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-20 | 74 | 55 | 28 |
| 2026-06-05 | 78 | 63 | 21 |
| 2026-06-12 | 88 | 78 | 35 |
| 2026-06-15 | 92 | — | 35 |
| 2026-06-17 | — | 84 | 33 |
| 2026-06-18 | — | — | 29 |

_30 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-14 · June 30, 2026 −11pp 40→29¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-12 · June 30, 2026 +6pp 29→35¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-15 · June 30, 2026 +6pp 29→35¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-13 · June 30, 2026 +5pp 35→40¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-13 · September 30, 2026 +5pp 78→83¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

The 77% probability indicates traders believe Russia will capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026, though the much lower prices for June and May deadlines (10-27%) suggest most gains would occur later in the year. The probability reflects Russia's recent territorial advances in the Donbas region, balanced against Ukrainian defensive capabilities and the logistics required to seize a city of Kostyantynivka's size and complexity. The main drivers are Russia's current pace of advance, availability of reinforcements, and Ukrainian ability to reinforce or counter-attack. The critical uncertainty centers on military momentum through mid-2026—any sustained Ukrainian counteroffensive or major shift in Western military aid would substantially shift expectations. Resolution depends on ground control verifiable by late December 2026, making seasonal conditions and battlefield developments over the next 7-8 months the key unknowns.

### Key factors

- Russia's current territorial control and proximity to Kostyantynivka, including distance from active front lines as of May 2026
- Ukrainian defensive capability and counteroffensive potential, measured by recent military operations and force composition in the sector
- The sharp probability drop from December 31 (77%) to June 30 (27%) indicates traders expect meaningful uncertainty rather than imminent capture
- Third-party military aid commitments to Ukraine and their delivery timeline, which directly affect defensive capacity
- Seasonal factors and attrition rates that historically affect ground operations in the region during late 2026

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/russia-capture-kostyantynivka
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=russia-capture-kostyantynivka
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/ukraine

## License

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