# Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by...

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 3% across 1 contract — refreshed 2 d ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/russia-capture-kupianskvuzlovyi
Updated: 2026-05-07T00:35:36.267Z
Category: geopolitics · Topic: ukraine
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-31

## Headline

- Probability: 3% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $308

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 3¢ | ±0 | $308 | polymarket | /markets/will-russia-capture-kupiansk-vuzlovyi-by-may-31-polymarket-0xea7f9ecf4d9687877951b704c7d9b763dadff887c4d4042d34ab7102f3e17897 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-22 | 31 |
| 2026-04-25 | 11 |
| 2026-05-02 | 3 |
| 2026-05-08 | 3 |

_13 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · May 31 −3pp 6→3¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This contract predicts whether Russia will capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by a specific date (not stated in available data), currently priced at 3% probability. The low probability reflects the substantial distance between current front lines and this logistics hub, combined with Ukraine's defensive capabilities and the significant military resources required for Russian advancement. Related contracts show traders assigning only 10% odds to Russian capture of Kostyantynivka by May 31, 2026, suggesting skepticism about near-term Russian territorial gains in this sector. The primary uncertainty driver is the pace of Russian offensive operations and whether they can sustain momentum against Ukrainian resistance. Major catalysts include verified reports of front-line movement, changes in force composition, or shifts in territorial control that would indicate capability for deeper advances into Donetsk Oblast.

### Key factors

- Distance and logistics: Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi's location relative to current Russian-controlled territory and supply lines
- Comparative market pricing: Related contracts value Kostyantynivka capture by December 31, 2026 at 77% but June 30 at only 27%, indicating time-dependency
- Ukrainian defensive capacity: Historical resistance patterns and available defensive positions in the corridor
- Russian operational tempo: Documented rate of territorial change over previous months in this specific sector
- Contract expiration date: The unspecified deadline for this prediction, which determines the time window for Russian advancement

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/russia-capture-kupianskvuzlovyi
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=russia-capture-kupianskvuzlovyi
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/ukraine

## License

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