# Will Russia capture Lyman by...

> Closed. Last odds frozen 12 h ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/russia-capture-lyman
Updated: 2026-06-19T01:20:20.801Z
Category: geopolitics · Topic: ukraine
Status: historical
Closes: 2025-12-31

## Headline

- Probability: 3% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $833

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 3¢ | −1pp | $833 | polymarket | /markets/will-russia-capture-lyman-by-may-31-polymarket-0x976adfce69d6fcdc611255282d78e41716183b78560076fc2f68c6823d814ddc |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-20 | 3 |
| 2026-05-22 | 2 |
| 2026-05-25 | 2 |
| 2026-05-26 | 1 |
| 2026-05-31 | 0 |

_5 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that Russian forces will capture Lyman, a city in Donetsk that Ukraine recaptured in October 2022, before a specified future date. The 3% level suggests participants assess this outcome as unlikely given current frontline positions and Ukrainian defensive capabilities. The probability would move primarily on changes to the military balance in eastern Ukraine—significant Russian advances or Ukrainian withdrawals in the Donetsk region could raise it, while stabilized front lines or Ukrainian counteroffensives would likely keep it low. The resolution will depend on actual territorial control as confirmed by military sources and open-source intelligence tracking, with any major shifts in the conflict's momentum serving as potential catalysts for probability adjustment.

### Key factors

- Current front-line distance between Russian and Ukrainian forces near Lyman, measurable through satellite imagery and military reports
- Trajectory of Russian territorial gains in Donetsk Oblast over recent months, which would indicate whether momentum supports capture
- Ukrainian force strength and defensive positions in the Lyman area, including fortifications and reserve availability
- Supply line sustainability for either side attempting to hold or capture the city
- Broader ceasefire negotiations or peace agreements that could freeze territorial lines before capture occurs

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/russia-capture-lyman
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=russia-capture-lyman
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/ukraine

## License

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