# Will Russia capture Myropillia by May 31

> Closed. Last odds frozen 1 h ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/russia-capture-myropillia-may-31
Updated: 2026-05-28T19:20:14.697Z
Category: geopolitics · Topic: ukraine
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-05-31

## Headline

- Probability: 3% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 3¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/will-russia-capture-myropillia-by-may-31-polymarket-0x86c08ac20c538568df99b22158ae6cc85dd1fca1d463905b8302540aede0f8a0 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | 7 |
| 2026-05-21 | 7 |
| 2026-05-27 | 3 |

_12 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability represents the market's estimate that Russian forces will seize control of Myropillia, a settlement in Ukraine, within the next two weeks by May 31, 2026. The 6% level suggests traders view capture as unlikely in this timeframe, likely reflecting the current military positions, pace of Russian advances in the region, and Ukrainian defensive capabilities. The main driver of probability shifts would be changes in the rate of Russian territorial gains in eastern Ukraine or significant shifts in military resources. The single biggest catalyst will be the actual military situation on the ground as May 31 approaches, with real-time reports of Russian force movements and Ukrainian counteraction providing the clearest indication of whether capture becomes feasible.

### Key factors

- Current distance of Russian forces from Myropillia and the rate of advance in recent weeks
- Ukrainian defensive positions and reported troop concentrations around the settlement
- Supply line status and availability of Russian assault forces allocated to this specific objective
- Historical pace of Russian territorial gains in this region over comparable two-week periods
- Any announced Ukrainian reinforcements or strategic withdrawals affecting the contested area

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/russia-capture-myropillia-may-31
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=russia-capture-myropillia-may-31
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/ukraine

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