# Will Russia capture Serhiivka by...

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 3% across 1 contract — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/russia-capture-serhiivka
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:40.382Z
Category: geopolitics · Topic: ukraine
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-31

## Headline

- Probability: 3% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/will-russia-capture-serhiivka-by-may-31-polymarket-0xc9def3280f8742a0a7959ad05baf0762240a556111b3f915e4ee37938a2ffb0c |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-22 | 22 |
| 2026-04-25 | 6 |
| 2026-05-02 | 3 |
| 2026-05-06 | 3 |

_12 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This contract predicts whether Russia will capture Serhiivka by a specific date. At 3% probability, markets assess this outcome as unlikely in the near term. The low probability reflects the current front lines in eastern Ukraine, where Russian forces continue grinding advances but face sustained Ukrainian resistance and logistical constraints. Key factors include the pace of Russian territorial gains, Ukrainian defensive capabilities and reinforcement rates, and the availability of combat troops and equipment for both sides. The main uncertainty hinges on whether Russian offensive momentum accelerates significantly or stalls—a determination that becomes clearer through verifiable territorial changes and casualty/equipment loss data over the coming weeks. Comparatively, markets price similar captures of nearby Kostyantynivka much higher for longer timeframes, suggesting geography and defensive positions differ meaningfully across these locations.

### Key factors

- Current distance and terrain between active Russian positions and Serhiivka, compared to other contested towns like Kostyantynivka
- Documented rate of Russian territorial advance over the past 30-60 days versus historical rates needed to reach the target by the contract deadline
- Ukrainian troop deployments and defensive preparations around Serhiivka, observable through military reporting
- Russian military casualty and equipment loss rates versus reported replacement and reinforcement flows
- Seasonal factors and weather conditions affecting combat operations in the region through the contract expiration date

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/russia-capture-serhiivka
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=russia-capture-serhiivka
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/ukraine

## License

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