# Russia coup attempt in 2026

> Closed. Last odds frozen 1 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/russia-coup-attempt
Updated: 2026-06-18T05:20:21.689Z
Category: geopolitics · Topic: ukraine
Status: historical

## Headline

- Probability: 9% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $13K

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia coup attempt in 2026? | 9¢ | ±0 | $13K | polymarket | /markets/russia-coup-attempt-in-2026-polymarket-0xf91ca58d99ac47e4c6a8c324419f082b3d09744179b1a8b6540a3c20c6c23c7d |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-09 | 9 |
| 2026-06-12 | 9 |
| 2026-06-15 | 8 |
| 2026-06-16 | 9 |
| 2026-06-18 | 9 |

_5 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability reflects market assessment of the likelihood that a coup attempt occurs in Russia during 2026. At 9%, the market suggests this outcome is considered unlikely but not negligible. The relatively low probability reflects the historical rarity of successful coups in nuclear-armed states and Russia's established power structures, though markets also price in risks from potential military instability, factional tensions within the security apparatus, or cascading effects from ongoing geopolitical conflicts. Key drivers of movement would include major shifts in domestic political stability, significant military setbacks or domestic crises that destabilize institutional control, or unexpected developments within Russia's security and defense establishment. Resolution will depend on how external observers and event participants define and document a coup attempt, with key developments likely to emerge throughout 2026 as the year unfolds.

### Key factors

- Russia maintains extensive security apparatus and centralized state control mechanisms that have proven resilient against internal political challenges historically
- Ongoing military commitments and potential domestic resource constraints could create pressure points within the Russian military and security establishment
- Historical precedent suggests coup attempts in nuclear-armed states face exceptionally high barriers due to institutional safeguards and mutual deterrence among power centers
- Market liquidity and contract volume ($12,749 in 24h trading) indicate limited trader participation, potentially affecting probability precision
- Definitional clarity on what constitutes a 'coup attempt' will be critical for contract resolution, including threshold for organization level and intent

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/russia-coup-attempt
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=russia-coup-attempt
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/ukraine

## License

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