# Will Russia enter Havrylivka by...

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 23% across 1 contract — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/russia-enter-havrylivka
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:42.330Z
Category: geopolitics · Topic: ukraine
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-31

## Headline

- Probability: 23% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $29

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 23¢ | +11pp | $29 | polymarket | /markets/will-russia-enter-havrylivka-by-may-31-polymarket-0xb63e712c51b4bc1f1845759d36bf12cbfbae34a27687fb79d5e562a73f67aa8e |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-22 | 31 |
| 2026-04-25 | 29 |
| 2026-05-02 | 21 |
| 2026-05-08 | 43 |

_14 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · May 31 +12pp 20→32¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-08 · May 31 +11pp 32→43¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market reflects the probability that Russian forces will capture Havrylivka by a specific deadline. The 21% probability suggests market participants view a Russian advance to this location as unlikely within the timeframe specified. The current assessment likely reflects recent operational tempo in the region, defensive positions, and the pace of territorial changes in eastern Ukraine. Key drivers would include Russian military offensive capacity, Ukrainian defensive effectiveness, and available resources on both sides. Related markets show varying confidence levels for nearby towns—some assigned higher odds (Novooleksandrivka at 74% by May 31) while others show lower expectations (Orikhiv at 15% by June 30), suggesting the market differentiates based on tactical positions and distance factors.

### Key factors

- Recent Russian operational tempo and rate of territorial advance in the Zaporizhzhia region compared to historical trends
- Defensive fortification status and troop positioning in and around Havrylivka relative to other contested areas
- Ukrainian counteroffensive capability and resource allocation in this sector versus other fronts
- Weather and seasonal conditions affecting military operations through the specified deadline
- Disparity between this market's 21% probability and the 74% probability assigned to Novooleksandrivka (May 31), suggesting market participants view Havrylivka as either further away or more defensible

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/russia-enter-havrylivka
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=russia-enter-havrylivka
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/ukraine

## License

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