# Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by...

> Closed. Last odds frozen 3 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/russia-enter-huliaipilske
Updated: 2026-05-25T07:20:12.261Z
Category: geopolitics · Topic: ukraine
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-05-31

## Headline

- Probability: 95% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $21K

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 95¢ | +4pp | $21K | polymarket | /markets/will-russia-enter-huliaipilske-by-may-31-polymarket-0x896165a108f6d61a105bcd0509c5bdf3d6c1ebcd07664e42afb002482c86a25c |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | 39 |
| 2026-05-14 | 46 |
| 2026-05-21 | 52 |
| 2026-05-24 | 100 |

_19 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-22 · May 31 +25pp 52→77¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-21 · May 31 +21pp 31→52¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-23 · May 31 +19pp 77→96¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-24 · May 31 +4pp 96→100¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability reflects traders' assessment that Russian forces will capture the Ukrainian town of Huliaipilske within the next nine days. The 79% level suggests relatively high confidence in this outcome, though significant uncertainty remains. The primary drivers are the current military positions and rate of Russian advance in the region. The contract resolves on May 31, 2026, making this a near-term tactical prediction dependent on daily battlefield developments. Factors that could shift the probability include changes in Russian offensive capability, Ukrainian defensive capacity, weather conditions affecting military operations, and the pace of recent combat movements in the area.

### Key factors

- Current distance between Russian front lines and Huliaipilske, and documented rate of advance over the past 30 days
- Ukrainian defensive positions, troop concentrations, and stated intentions to hold or defend the town
- Weather and seasonal conditions affecting ground mobility and combat operations between now and May 31
- Recent Russian military losses, equipment availability, and logistics capacity to sustain offensive operations
- Historical resolution of similar contracts predicting Russian town captures and actual capture timelines

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/russia-enter-huliaipilske
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=russia-enter-huliaipilske
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/ukraine

## License

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