# Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by...

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 20% across 1 contract — refreshed 13 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/russia-enter-kindrashivka
Updated: 2026-05-03T19:50:51.991Z
Category: geopolitics · Topic: ukraine
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-31

## Headline

- Probability: 20% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $15

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 20¢ | +2pp | $15 | polymarket | /markets/will-russia-enter-kindrashivka-by-may-31-polymarket-0x92c95e9b2ea09d40fea4d1cf4f71642ba6ca3f276ed357b8eb791d0375adfb5f |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-22 | 34 |
| 2026-04-26 | 40 |
| 2026-05-03 | 22 |

_12 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-01 · May 31 −21pp 49→28¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-29 · May 31 +15pp 44→59¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-30 · May 31 −10pp 59→49¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · May 31 −8pp 28→20¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-28 · May 31 +6pp 38→44¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This contract estimates an 18% probability that Russian forces will capture Kindrashivka by a specific deadline (likely late May or early June 2026). The low probability reflects the current front-line positions and pace of Russian territorial advances in this sector of southern Ukraine. Related contracts show varied confidence levels: markets price a 74% chance Russia takes Novooleksandrivka by May 31, but only 22% for Novyi Donbas and 26% for Orikhiv by July 31. The resolution depends on Russian military operational tempo, Ukrainian defensive capacity, and logistics capabilities in the region. Military momentum, casualty rates, and equipment availability will be primary drivers of whether this low probability shifts materially before expiration.

### Key factors

- Current distance between Russian-held territory and Kindrashivka and recent weekly advance rates in this sector
- Status of Ukrainian defensive positions and reserve force availability near Kindrashivka
- Russian force concentration, equipment levels, and supply line capacity for operations in this area
- Comparative market pricing on nearby towns (74% for Novooleksandrivka vs 18% for Kindrashivka) indicating analyst differentiation between targets
- Weather and seasonal conditions affecting operational capability from early May through contract expiration

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/russia-enter-kindrashivka
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=russia-enter-kindrashivka
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/ukraine

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.