# Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by...

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 16% across 1 contract — refreshed 8 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/russia-enter-krasnoiarske
Updated: 2026-05-03T20:35:59.147Z
Category: geopolitics · Topic: ukraine
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-31

## Headline

- Probability: 16% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $91

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 16¢ | +2pp | $91 | polymarket | /markets/will-russia-enter-krasnoiarske-by-may-31-polymarket-0xbd2a193eba83cf567eec2e0f1754cdea862e6829c89dbc476d7e911ad89e0f33 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-22 | 23 |
| 2026-04-26 | 26 |
| 2026-05-02 | 18 |

_11 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-29 · May 31 +21pp 16→37¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-30 · May 31 −16pp 37→21¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-27 · May 31 −14pp 26→12¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-26 · May 31 +7pp 19→26¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-01 · May 31 −5pp 21→16¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This 17% probability reflects the chance that Russian military forces will capture Krasnoiarske, a city in southeastern Ukraine, by a specified deadline. The low probability suggests market participants view a Russian breakthrough to this location as unlikely within the timeframe, though not impossible. Market pricing reflects the distance of Krasnoiarske from current Russian-held territory and the defensive capacity of Ukrainian forces in the region. The probability would rise if Russia achieves rapid territorial gains in neighboring areas or if Ukrainian defensive positions weaken significantly. Conversely, it would decline if Ukrainian counteroffensives succeed or if Russian offensive momentum slows. The resolution depends primarily on military developments on the ground in the coming weeks, with any major shift in frontline positions potentially triggering significant repricing.

### Key factors

- Current distance of Russian forces from Krasnoiarske and pace of Russian territorial advance in southeastern Ukraine
- Status and strength of Ukrainian defensive lines between Russian-held territory and the city
- Russian military resources and supply lines available for offensive operations in this sector versus competing priorities
- Comparison to similar cities in related markets (Vasylivka at 50%, Novooleksandrivka at 74% for May 31) suggesting market views Russia unlikely to reach Krasnoiarske as quickly as other objectives
- The specified deadline for resolution and whether it allows sufficient time for Russian forces to overcome intervening defensive positions

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/russia-enter-krasnoiarske
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=russia-enter-krasnoiarske
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/ukraine

## License

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