# Will Russia enter Krasnopillya by...

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 24% across 1 contract — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/russia-enter-krasnopillya
Updated: 2026-05-03T18:50:51.063Z
Category: geopolitics · Topic: ukraine
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-31

## Headline

- Probability: 24% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $705

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 24¢ | −7pp | $705 | polymarket | /markets/will-russia-enter-krasnopillya-by-may-31-polymarket-0xb744bc19070b0c84fde101c0b4dc81f7192a3d65723b594db1e30596608d7dc5 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-22 | 24 |
| 2026-04-26 | 36 |
| 2026-05-02 | 18 |

_11 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-29 · May 31 −8pp 32→24¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · May 31 −7pp 25→18¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-27 · May 31 −6pp 36→30¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-01 · May 31 +6pp 19→25¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-30 · May 31 −5pp 24→19¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This contract reflects a prediction that Russian forces will capture Krasnopillya by a specified deadline. An 18% probability indicates low but non-negligible market confidence in this outcome. The prediction is informed by current frontline positions and the pace of Russian advances in the region. Key factors shaping the probability include the distance between Russian-held territory and Krasnopillya, the defensive capabilities of Ukrainian forces, supply line sustainability for Russian operations, and seasonal weather impacts on military mobility. Resolution will depend on verified Russian military control of the location by the contract deadline. Related markets suggest higher confidence in Russian advances toward other nearby towns like Novooleksandrivka by May 31, while Krasnopillya appears viewed as a lower-probability target within the same timeframe. Market pricing reflects uncertainty about Russian operational priorities and Ukrainian defensive effectiveness in this sector.

### Key factors

- Current distance between Russian forward positions and Krasnopillya, and documented rate of Russian territorial gains in this specific area
- Quality and quantity of Ukrainian defensive positions and reserves committed to holding Krasnopillya
- Supply line integrity and logistical capacity supporting Russian offensive operations in the region
- Related market pricing on nearby towns (higher probabilities for Novooleksandrivka and Vasylivka suggest relative difficulty of Krasnopillya capture)
- Seasonal military mobility factors including road conditions and weather patterns between now and contract deadline

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/russia-enter-krasnopillya
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=russia-enter-krasnopillya
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/ukraine

## License

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