# Will Russia enter Malokaterynivka by...

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 4% across 1 contract — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/russia-enter-malokaterynivka
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:39.434Z
Category: geopolitics · Topic: ukraine
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-31

## Headline

- Probability: 4% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 4¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/will-russia-enter-malokaterynivka-by-may-31-polymarket-0x76598a35e8cb78059f1a36b84442c2f958528bab1e2738a6c95bb35e88288f8f |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-22 | 29 |
| 2026-04-25 | 19 |
| 2026-05-02 | 5 |
| 2026-05-03 | 5 |

_11 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This market estimates a 5% chance that Russian forces will enter Malokaterynivka by an unspecified deadline. The low probability reflects the town's current position relative to active Russian offensive operations in southern Ukraine. The assessment would shift based on Russian military progress in neighboring areas—related markets show higher probabilities for other nearby settlements like Novooleksandrivka (74% by May 31) and Vasylivka (50% by May 31), suggesting market participants see those as more immediately threatened. The key driver of this probability is the pace and direction of Russian advances in Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk oblasts. Resolution depends on verified reports of Russian military presence within Malokaterynivka's administrative boundaries, which typically emerge through military analysis, local reports, or official announcements. The related contract activity indicates ongoing interest in Russian territorial gains across this region, with May and June deadlines suggesting near-term expectations.

### Key factors

- Novooleksandrivka carries 74% probability by May 31, while Malokaterynivka shows only 5%, indicating market participants view other settlements as more immediately threatened
- Related contracts span different deadlines (May 31 through July 31) with varying probabilities, reflecting uncertainty about both timing and pace of Russian advances
- Trading volume across regional contracts ($1,400-$4,000 daily) suggests active market interest but relatively dispersed confidence rather than consensus
- Malokaterynivka's location and current distance from Russian-controlled territory relative to higher-probability targets like Novooleksandrivka affects assessed breakthrough likelihood
- The 5% probability implies market assessment that Russian forces would need to overcome significant additional territory before reaching this specific settlement

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

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- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=russia-enter-malokaterynivka
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/ukraine

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