# Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by...

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 25% across 1 contract — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/russia-enter-mykhailivka
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:44.116Z
Category: geopolitics · Topic: ukraine
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-31

## Headline

- Probability: 25% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $13

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 25¢ | −2pp | $13 | polymarket | /markets/will-russia-enter-mykhailivka-by-may-31-polymarket-0x1be7daeb34173ab67d102c576612dbebfc3224198a2729093fcd4808c77b203d |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-22 | 38 |
| 2026-04-25 | 24 |
| 2026-05-02 | 22 |
| 2026-05-08 | 26 |

_15 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · May 31 +8pp 23→31¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · May 31 −3pp 31→28¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market reflects a 23% probability that Russian forces will enter Mykhailivka by a specific deadline. The low probability suggests market participants view a Russian advance into this location as unlikely within the timeframe in question. The current level is primarily driven by Russian operational tempo in this sector of the conflict and the defensive positions held by Ukrainian forces. Related markets show mixed expectations: nearby towns like Novooleksandrivka have much higher probabilities (74%) while others like Novyi Donbas remain low (22%), indicating markets distinguish between different geographic locations based on current military positions and strategic importance. The resolution will depend on verified reports of Russian military entry into Mykhailivka, likely confirmed through military assessments, satellite imagery, or official statements. Military momentum and logistical capacity in this specific theater will be the primary drivers of any significant probability shift.

### Key factors

- Current Russian military positions relative to Mykhailivka and the distance required to advance
- Ukrainian defensive capabilities and troop concentrations in the area
- Recent rate of Russian territorial gains in surrounding settlements
- Strategic importance of Mykhailivka relative to Russian operational objectives
- Availability of verified reporting mechanisms to confirm Russian entry when/if it occurs

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/russia-enter-mykhailivka
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=russia-enter-mykhailivka
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/ukraine

## License

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