# Will Russia enter Myrne by...

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 21% across 1 contract — refreshed 7 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/russia-enter-myrne
Updated: 2026-05-03T19:20:50.367Z
Category: geopolitics · Topic: ukraine
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-31

## Headline

- Probability: 21% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $295

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 21¢ | −11pp | $295 | polymarket | /markets/will-russia-enter-myrne-by-may-31-polymarket-0x9391cd96f6460f60435128788264ad7abf7fc7480a3aef5edec6267d98d531b4 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-22 | 38 |
| 2026-04-26 | 38 |
| 2026-05-02 | 28 |

_11 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-26 · May 31 −14pp 52→38¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-29 · May 31 −12pp 48→36¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-30 · May 31 +12pp 36→48¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · May 31 −11pp 39→28¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-28 · May 31 +9pp 39→48¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This 21% probability reflects market expectations that Russian forces will enter Myrne by a specified deadline. The forecast sits between higher confidence that nearby Novooleksandrivka will be captured by May 31 (74%) and lower confidence in Orikhiv by July 31 (26%), suggesting Myrne occupies uncertain middle ground in Russian territorial objectives. Market prices depend on current front-line positions, Russia's operational tempo, logistical capacity, and Ukrainian defensive capabilities. The resolution hinges on verified Russian military presence in Myrne, likely confirmed through geolocated reports, official statements, or independent monitoring. Upcoming military developments over the next 1-3 months will clarify whether Russian advance rates accelerate, stall, or reverse, directly impacting whether forces can reach Myrne within the timeframe.

### Key factors

- Current Russian front-line distance from Myrne and recent rate of territorial gain in the region
- Relative market confidence in Russian capture of adjacent settlements by May 31 versus later July 31 deadlines suggests phased geographic expectations
- Ukrainian defensive posture and force availability specifically in the Myrne sector
- Russian logistical constraints and whether committed reserves are sufficient for continued offensive operations
- External factors including weapons supply to Ukraine, weather conditions, and casualty rates affecting operational capacity

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/russia-enter-myrne
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=russia-enter-myrne
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/ukraine

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