# Will Russia enter Serhiivka by...

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 8% across 1 contract — refreshed 7 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/russia-enter-serhiivka
Updated: 2026-05-03T19:20:52.656Z
Category: geopolitics · Topic: ukraine
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-31

## Headline

- Probability: 8% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 8¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/will-russia-enter-serhiivka-by-may-31-polymarket-0x43cf569450f1c4259cd0426127d8356fb6296df9f09456d1d4aa3c9cd4cd76c4 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-22 | 32 |
| 2026-04-26 | 31 |
| 2026-05-02 | 8 |

_11 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-30 · May 31 −21pp 33→12¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-28 · May 31 +14pp 27→41¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-26 · May 31 +9pp 22→31¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-29 · May 31 −8pp 41→33¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-01 · May 31 −6pp 12→6¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This contract estimates a 7% probability that Russian forces will capture Serhiivka by a specified deadline. The low probability reflects the current distance between Russian front lines and Serhiivka, located in southern Zaporizhzhia Oblast, as well as the relatively slow pace of Russian territorial gains in this sector over recent months. The probability could rise if Russian advances accelerate in the region or if Ukrainian defensive positions weaken, and could fall if front lines stabilize or shift in Ukraine's favor. The contract will be resolved based on verified reports of Russian military control of the settlement, which typically requires sustained occupation and administrative takeover rather than brief tactical incursions.

### Key factors

- Current Russian front-line position relative to Serhiivka and the distance required to capture it
- Historical rate of Russian territorial gains in Zaporizhzhia Oblast over the past 3-6 months
- Ukrainian defensive capability and troop concentrations in the Serhiivka area
- Relative probability of capture in nearby settlements (Vasylivka at 50%, Novooleksandrivka at 74%) suggests lower strategic priority or greater defensive difficulty for this specific location
- Seasonal and weather factors affecting military operations and supply lines in the region

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/russia-enter-serhiivka
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=russia-enter-serhiivka
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/ukraine

## License

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