# Will Russia enter Stinky by...

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 10% across 1 contract — refreshed 6 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/russia-enter-stinky
Updated: 2026-05-03T20:05:54.820Z
Category: geopolitics · Topic: ukraine
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-31

## Headline

- Probability: 10% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $31

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 10¢ | −25pp | $31 | polymarket | /markets/will-russia-enter-stinky-by-may-31-polymarket-0xe26dcffeba8a94632df98acb0b16171557558e9677f161d4602232e7fd328415 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-22 | 25 |
| 2026-04-26 | 16 |
| 2026-05-02 | 14 |

_11 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-27 · May 31 +27pp 16→43¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · May 31 −25pp 39→14¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-30 · May 31 +19pp 15→34¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-29 · May 31 −18pp 33→15¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-28 · May 31 −10pp 43→33¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This represents the probability that Russian forces will capture Stinky, a settlement in Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia region, by a specific deadline. The 10% probability reflects skepticism about near-term Russian territorial gains in this sector, given the current pace of military operations and the distance Russian forces maintain from the settlement. The main factors driving this low probability are the relatively static front lines in this area and the logistical challenges of offensive operations. The deadline itself—whether set weeks or months ahead—determines feasibility; earlier deadlines naturally attract lower probabilities than later ones. Resolution depends entirely on verified reports of Russian military control of the settlement, making any major shift in local combat operations the critical trigger for probability movement.

### Key factors

- Current distance between Russian-held territory and Stinky, and documented front-line positions as of the resolution date
- Pace of Russian territorial advances in the Zaporizhzhia sector over the preceding 6-12 months
- Ukrainian defensive capabilities and force positioning in the Stinky area
- Logistics and supply line sustainability for Russian offensive operations in this theater
- Specific deadline embedded in the contract, which directly constrains the timeframe for capture

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/russia-enter-stinky
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=russia-enter-stinky
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/ukraine

## License

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