# Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by...

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 25% across 1 contract — refreshed 7 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/russia-enter-ternuvate-again
Updated: 2026-05-03T19:20:58.363Z
Category: geopolitics · Topic: ukraine
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-31

## Headline

- Probability: 25% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $8

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 25¢ | +4pp | $8 | polymarket | /markets/will-russia-enter-ternuvate-again-by-may-31-polymarket-0xda70183170dabffacfcaf4d3f28cc8d02654eebc5f3821d0573aa9468d5acf6d |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-22 | 42 |
| 2026-04-26 | 45 |
| 2026-05-02 | 26 |

_11 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-29 · May 31 −17pp 44→27¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-26 · May 31 −8pp 53→45¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-27 · May 31 −7pp 45→38¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-28 · May 31 +6pp 38→44¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-30 · May 31 −6pp 27→21¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This prediction reflects market estimates that Russia will capture Ternuvate by a specified date. The 25% probability suggests traders view this outcome as unlikely but possible within the timeframe. The assessment depends primarily on current Russian military capabilities and the pace of advances in this sector of the conflict, weighed against Ukrainian defensive capacity. Related contract probabilities for nearby towns vary significantly—Novooleksandrivka shows 74% by May 31, while Novyi Donbas shows only 22%—suggesting traders view different locations as having materially different capture probabilities. The main uncertainty drivers are the rate of territorial changes in the coming weeks and whether Russian forces can maintain or accelerate recent operational tempo. Resolution will depend on frontline status on or before the contract deadline, making near-term military developments the primary factor affecting this probability.

### Key factors

- Current distance and geography between Russian forward positions and Ternuvate, which determines the operational scope required for capture
- Relative probability assessments for surrounding towns (particularly Novooleksandrivka at 74% vs. Ternuvate at 25%), indicating market differentiation based on local military conditions
- Recent weekly or monthly rate of Russian territorial advance in this specific sector, compared to historical averages
- Ukrainian force concentration and defensive preparations in and around Ternuvate, based on available military reporting
- The specific contract deadline date relative to current calendar position—how much time remains for advance requirements

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

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- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=russia-enter-ternuvate-again
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/ukraine

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