# Will Russia enter Verkhnia Tersa by...

> Closed. Last odds frozen 1 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/russia-enter-verkhnia-tersa
Updated: 2026-06-18T05:20:21.689Z
Category: geopolitics · Topic: ukraine
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-07-31

## Headline

- Leader: June 30 at 21%
- Runner-up: June 30 at 16%
- Outcomes: 6 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $879

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 21¢ | +2pp | $108 | polymarket | /markets/will-russia-enter-novyi-donbas-by-june-30-polymarket-0xbf175df87f4cbcbcd65d85866b9e837e0ef1f2d0f1c14b6e01791ec28c3413fa |
| June 30 | 16¢ | −1pp | $9 | polymarket | /markets/will-russia-enter-shevchenko-by-june-30-polymarket-0x3e314306f5af508143e1f0e7d52de77b2c731b40575360c14ab638cb246e3643 |
| July 31 | 9¢ | −2pp | $40 | polymarket | /markets/will-russia-enter-orikhiv-by-july-31-polymarket-0xe271ffb9e706a4e589437ffda8dd59b5ed53d98a31e5203698aa62c83b999e0a |
| June 30 | 7¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/will-russia-enter-svitle-by-june-30-polymarket-0x0d41f6afb4963a0f8eb06b7bfe5deef3a89f5486e9cb3f001203c8e1063cb27a |
| June 30 | 4¢ | +1pp | $638 | polymarket | /markets/will-russia-enter-dobropillia-by-june-30-polymarket-0x3e63b0a9b1af05fb0d5ffcbf13e98b0fb047d80d51e93dab7e6d898f1e5faf1f |
| June 30 | 4¢ | +1pp | $85 | polymarket | /markets/will-russia-enter-orikhiv-by-june-30-polymarket-0x208a4b23ae06cc9835815525d6b320d967194feac920693a7bd52b8ff2950610 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | June 30 | June 30 | July 31 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-20 | 31 | 20 | 20 |
| 2026-06-05 | 13 | 16 | 16 |
| 2026-06-12 | 20 | 14 | 16 |
| 2026-06-17 | 19 | 16 | 10 |
| 2026-06-18 | 21 | — | — |

_30 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-16 · June 30 +6pp 16→22¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-14 · June 30 −4pp 17→13¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-12 · June 30 +4pp 4→8¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-14 · July 31 −4pp 16→12¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-13 · June 30 −3pp 20→17¢ · polymarket

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/russia-enter-verkhnia-tersa
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=russia-enter-verkhnia-tersa
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/ukraine

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.