# Will Russia invade another country in 2026

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 12% across 1 contract — refreshed 26 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/russia-invade-another-country
Updated: 2026-06-08T07:20:11.216Z
Category: geopolitics · Topic: ukraine
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Probability: 12% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $4

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia invade another country in 2026? | 12¢ | −1pp | $4 | polymarket | /markets/will-russia-invade-another-country-in-2026-polymarket-0x8011cff605bac25673a202332b678e823cd7d82abad9e9770db01ea625808229 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 12 |
| 2026-05-25 | 14 |
| 2026-06-02 | 12 |
| 2026-06-07 | 11 |

_15 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability represents the likelihood that Russian military forces will conduct a full-scale invasion of another country between now and December 31, 2026. At 12%, the market reflects relatively low expectations for such an action, though not negligible. The assessment appears driven by Russia's current military posture following its ongoing operations in Ukraine, combined with assessments of economic constraints and international response costs. Factors pushing probability up would include escalated rhetoric, troop mobilizations toward borders, or declared territorial claims. Factors pushing it down would include diplomatic engagement, military resource depletion, or international deterrence mechanisms. Resolution depends on whether military forces cross an international border in a manner meeting invasion criteria, making real-time intelligence and official declarations critical to monitoring this outcome through year-end.

### Key factors

- Current Russian military availability and logistical capacity given ongoing Ukraine operations and reported casualty levels
- Status of territorial disputes or border tensions with neighboring states (Georgia, Moldova, Kazakhstan, Belarus, Baltic nations)
- International deterrence posture, including NATO positioning, military aid commitments, and sanctions frameworks in effect
- Official Russian government statements regarding territorial ambitions or military intentions released before year-end
- Occurrence of major diplomatic initiatives or peace negotiations that could reduce invasion probabilities versus escalatory events

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/russia-invade-another-country
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=russia-invade-another-country
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/ukraine

## License

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