# Russia Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place

> 3rd Place: Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) leads at 39%, runner-up 33% across 6 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 23 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/russia-parliamentary-election-3rd-place
Updated: 2026-05-28T23:20:11.425Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-09-20

## Headline

- Leader: 3rd Place: Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) at 39%
- Runner-up: 3rd Place: New People (NL) at 33%
- Outcomes: 6 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3rd Place: Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) | 39¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/russia-parliamentary-election-3rd-place-liberal-de-polymarket-0x57f80a71fd7c470dfe2fc625e6b24168acfc95138396c248d6e85392cd0b344c |
| 3rd Place: New People (NL) | 33¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/russia-parliamentary-election-3rd-place-new-people-polymarket-0x9c511719257c8e4f486fc30696ae718c250eb24eef1fd9fae0bbae774f5e876e |
| 3rd Place: Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) | 32¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/russia-parliamentary-election-3rd-place-communist-polymarket-0xd8dcf41c1c938ffcf4ed95da62baff3c17a102fb56a6fe524db23145213ffef0 |
| 3rd Place: A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) | 21¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/russia-parliamentary-election-3rd-place-a-just-rus-polymarket-0x5242ae6ea38ca9e608a5b54e86655d2580de39ab9507592be05b9ad413ddda0e |
| 3rd Place: Civic Platform (GP) | 5¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/russia-parliamentary-election-3rd-place-civic-plat-polymarket-0xfbbad1ae2190fa1e977b0d2e0146dc94c093e3193fdc4b0a6082ff70d7eb4916 |
| 3rd Place: Rodina | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/russia-parliamentary-election-3rd-place-rodina-polymarket-0xe76b785eef847baf9866557cf2b4de3c7c09fbd4fdb3731044a95350bff24787 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 3rd Place: Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) | 3rd Place: New People (NL) | 3rd Place: Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | — | 33 | — |
| 2026-05-21 | 26 | 31 | 21 |
| 2026-05-28 | 38 | 34 | 32 |

_12 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-22 · 3rd Place: Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) +13pp 21→34¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-22 · 3rd Place: Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) +12pp 26→38¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-22 · 3rd Place: A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) +8pp 9→17¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability represents the odds that the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia will finish in third place in Russia's parliamentary elections. Currently priced at 33%, the LDPR holds a narrow lead over the New People party (32%) and Communist Party (30%), indicating substantial uncertainty about which opposition or systemic party will claim the third position. The outcome hinges on voter mobilization patterns, turnout in different regions, and how protest voting flows across the three competing parties. Russia's next parliamentary election will definitively resolve this market, determining which party achieves third-place vote share. Until then, polling data, party campaign activity, and any changes to electoral rules or candidate registration could shift probabilities among the tightly-clustered contenders.

### Key factors

- LDPR currently leads by only 1-3 percentage points over New People and KPRF, with all three parties clustering within a narrow probability band
- No substantial 24-hour trading volume on LDPR or New People contracts suggests limited recent information flow and potential for sharp repricing on new data
- Historical Russian parliamentary results show opposition party performances can shift significantly based on regional turnout and voter mobilization strategies
- The three-way race structure means even modest vote-share gains for one party could eliminate another from third place
- Any official polling releases, candidate disqualifications, or campaign developments in the coming weeks could move probabilities meaningfully across the tightly-grouped field

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/russia-parliamentary-election-3rd-place
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=russia-parliamentary-election-3rd-place
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

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