# Russia Parliamentary Election

> Turnout: 62%+ leads at 44%, runner-up 37% across 7 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 21 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/russia-parliamentary-election
Updated: 2026-05-28T23:20:09.246Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-09-20

## Headline

- Leader: Turnout: 62%+ at 44%
- Runner-up: Turnout: 53-56% at 37%
- Outcomes: 7 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Turnout: 62%+ | 44¢ | +5pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/russia-parliamentary-election-turnout-62-polymarket-0xab5578566715f72cbe05c9faec9090d59799c5493848f46fd758bb68025508b3 |
| Turnout: 53-56% | 37¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/russia-parliamentary-election-turnout-53-56-polymarket-0x3649766b9526d335382f7c5e5797f7d78a2a552d81193461ffc3f90c22fb6022 |
| Turnout: 50-53% | 34¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/russia-parliamentary-election-turnout-50-53-polymarket-0x050977f7e1e23e6540bc94a9f5b6f0d36f75885a56438b272e7752bc325a4ad7 |
| Turnout: 56-59% | 27¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/russia-parliamentary-election-turnout-56-59-polymarket-0x9099b8c5a81f4574f287d353d2b3643c390e7621a76b44b5f2cde5b083d0968b |
| Turnout: 59-62% | 23¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/russia-parliamentary-election-turnout-59-62-polymarket-0xc3a509ea6910a7419d0a12cc2edb3cfb24a4fe3e28fc42ae7e0361ec81742ae1 |
| Turnout: 47-50% | 12¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/russia-parliamentary-election-turnout-47-50-polymarket-0xd3da1952f231ce2fc1bff1a49113569c8b4faccde7dd98847b5169d082e660ae |
| Turnout: <47% | 11¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/russia-parliamentary-election-turnout-47-polymarket-0xf0c84cc3ca6b2e2b593aa228f12f68f7d953310b46bae7687244dda95f512807 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Turnout: 62%+ | Turnout: 53-56% | Turnout: 50-53% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | 37 | 41 | 37 |
| 2026-05-21 | 38 | 37 | 33 |
| 2026-05-23 | 38 | 36 | 33 |
| 2026-05-28 | 44 | 37 | — |

_12 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-24 · Turnout: 47-50% −8pp 21→13¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-26 · Turnout: <47% −7pp 19→12¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-27 · Turnout: 56-59% +5pp 25→30¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-28 · Turnout: 62%+ +5pp 39→44¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-23 · Turnout: 47-50% −4pp 25→21¢ · polymarket

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/russia-parliamentary-election
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=russia-parliamentary-election
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.