# Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 6% across 1 contract — refreshed 15 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-may-31
Updated: 2026-05-03T19:05:56.000Z
Category: geopolitics · Topic: ukraine
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-31

## Headline

- Probability: 6% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $125K

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | 6¢ | +1pp | $125K | polymarket | /markets/russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-by-may-31-2026-polymarket-0xa93b28a6384aefff4e7d5adb2061c444e4a0e95b8ad17755f9cee123c7099b35 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-22 | 4 |
| 2026-04-26 | 4 |
| 2026-05-02 | 7 |

_11 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-28 · Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? +14pp 5→19¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-29 · Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? −13pp 19→6¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This contract measures the probability that Russia and Ukraine will agree to a ceasefire by May 31, 2026—roughly four weeks from the current date. The 6% probability reflects assessments that a near-term diplomatic breakthrough is unlikely. Most investors pricing this contract appear to view continued conflict as the base case, particularly given historical patterns of failed negotiation attempts and the compressed timeframe. The probability could shift materially if either side signals willingness to negotiate substantively, if international mediators announce active diplomatic channels, or if military conditions change dramatically enough to alter incentive structures. With less than 30 days remaining, any meaningful movement in this probability would likely reflect new developments in peace talks or battlefield dynamics rather than longer-term trend analysis.

### Key factors

- Recent diplomatic statements and official positions from Russian and Ukrainian leadership regarding ceasefire conditions and preconditions
- Changes in military operational tempo or territorial control that might signal shift in either party's willingness to negotiate
- Involvement of credible international mediators and whether either government confirms active negotiations are underway
- Comparison of this 6% probability to the 26% probability for ceasefire by end-of-2026, indicating market assigns significantly higher probability to longer timeframe
- Trading volume and implied bet sizing on this specific contract relative to other Russia-Ukraine outcomes

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-may-31
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-may-31
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/ukraine

## License

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