# Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Elections: 2nd Place

> 2nd Place: CDU leads at 89%, runner-up 8% across 2 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 12 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/sachsenanhalt-parliamentary-elections-2nd-place
Updated: 2026-05-09T08:05:27.296Z
Category: general · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-09-06

## Headline

- Leader: 2nd Place: CDU at 89%
- Runner-up: 2nd Place: AfD at 8%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $50

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd Place: CDU | 89¢ | ±0 | $50 | polymarket | /markets/sachsen-anhalt-parliamentary-elections-2nd-place-c-polymarket-0xbb333a67a021476c97c9ac368e9d280ca43fe09782042d3ada92e48955c6a90c |
| 2nd Place: AfD | 8¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/sachsen-anhalt-parliamentary-elections-2nd-place-a-polymarket-0x2f8a38a5f25cb7eae35917f32262bdfcb3cd35d223d98e988b50f1b6d79e8230 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 2nd Place: CDU | 2nd Place: AfD |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 87 | 9 |
| 2026-04-23 | 87 | 9 |
| 2026-04-25 | — | 10 |
| 2026-05-01 | 87 | 6 |

_20 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that a specific party will finish in second place in the upcoming Sachsen-Anhalt state parliamentary elections in Germany. At 6%, the market is pricing this as a relatively unlikely outcome, suggesting one or two parties are heavily favored over others for the runner-up position. The current level reflects available polling data and recent political trends in this eastern German state. The main factors influencing this probability are recent polling trends showing which parties have consolidated support, the degree of uncertainty in voter turnout and potential shifts between the first and second-place finishers, and strategic voting patterns that could emerge before election day. The election itself will resolve all uncertainty when it occurs, providing definitive results for final vote shares and rankings among all competing parties.

### Key factors

- Recent polling aggregates showing which parties are polling in first and second place positions in Sachsen-Anhalt
- Historical volatility in eastern German state elections and the degree of polling error in predicting second-place finishes
- Potential for voter consolidation or fragmentation among smaller parties that could shift final rankings
- Turnout expectations and demographic shifts that could alter the balance between competing parties
- Date and timing of the election, as this determines when the market resolves based on official results

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/sachsenanhalt-parliamentary-elections-2nd-place
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=sachsenanhalt-parliamentary-elections-2nd-place
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

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