# Sagan Tosu vs. Gainare Tottori - More Markets

> O/U 1.5 leads at 65%, runner-up 54% across 9 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 14 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/sagan-tosu-vs-gainare-tottori-more-markets
Updated: 2026-05-03T17:36:06.772Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-06

## Headline

- Leader: O/U 1.5 at 65%
- Runner-up: O/U 2.5 at 54%
- Outcomes: 9 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O/U 1.5 | 65¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/sagan-tosu-vs-gainare-tottori-more-markets-ou-15-polymarket-0xb085f45a735169eb9ef7d0bd0108825a4816d73a567acf02e04169d03530d24e |
| O/U 2.5 | 54¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/sagan-tosu-vs-gainare-tottori-more-markets-ou-25-polymarket-0x2d68ef538060e39f821c7b567407e6bd8d67066d9685038cc748cb2c8fd45be9 |
| Both Teams to Score | 51¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/sagan-tosu-vs-gainare-tottori-more-markets-both-te-polymarket-0xc62c8052b88eabaf7fbba8ed2266f84cd1e1cffbed7ad97d4003e6dc8d513ca6 |
| O/U 3.5 | 41¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/sagan-tosu-vs-gainare-tottori-more-markets-ou-35-polymarket-0x57869b63e71fd2eaa7d4772e0867a99e3109e15620fde4daf168820a4f8a5019 |
| Gainare Tottori (-2.5) | 35¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/sagan-tosu-vs-gainare-tottori-more-markets-gainare-polymarket-0x00cdc863684fd3e4ee696cbf0834c6bcc97af7e2a4500b2e97b8d1709d5a8c9f |
| Gainare Tottori (-1.5) | 33¢ | +4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/sagan-tosu-vs-gainare-tottori-more-markets-gainare-polymarket-0xe81828ca36aab01b297bf67fd646d0c2907d7df576ef42e4f8fbba3e8d2da3a4 |
| Sagan Tosu (-2.5) | 33¢ | +4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/sagan-tosu-vs-gainare-tottori-more-markets-sagan-t-polymarket-0x5900f7e742db7839d3896d8c530bc6a6c5022b3f22a6119cb5ca7546291bc899 |
| Sagan Tosu (-1.5) | 32¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/sagan-tosu-vs-gainare-tottori-more-markets-sagan-t-polymarket-0xde051c4f9072d30ef1a54c22875e34aee124590306fc49e7b41e01fc297ef56b |
| O/U 4.5 | 28¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/sagan-tosu-vs-gainare-tottori-more-markets-ou-45-polymarket-0x719429327bee4b18742338d491206abbbe3d1dcdbd56879a4a0af5baee1f7984 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | O/U 1.5 | O/U 2.5 | Both Teams to Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | 63 | 53 | 53 |
| 2026-05-03 | 63 | 54 | 51 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · Gainare Tottori (-1.5) +4pp 33→37¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Sagan Tosu (-2.5) +4pp 32→36¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Gainare Tottori (-2.5) +3pp 34→37¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market assigns a 51% probability to Sagan Tosu winning against Gainare Tottori, based on aggregated pricing from five contracts on Polymarket. The market shows relatively tight positioning, with the leader at 51% and the runner-up at 38%, indicating meaningful disagreement among traders. Key drivers of this probability include the teams' recent form, head-to-head history, and current league standings in the Japanese football system. The match itself will serve as the primary resolution event, with the outcome determined by final score. Market pricing reflects uncertainty that could shift significantly if new team news—such as injuries, lineup changes, or betting-line movements from traditional sportsbooks—emerges before kickoff. The relatively low trading volume ($306 24h across contracts) suggests limited liquidity, meaning substantial new positions could move prices noticeably.

### Key factors

- Sagan Tosu's current J-League standing and recent match results versus Gainare Tottori's recent form
- Historical head-to-head performance between the two clubs and home/away advantage factors
- Team lineup and injury status announcements closer to match day
- Comparative odds and implied probabilities from major Asian sportsbooks relative to the 51% market price
- Trading volume and order book depth suggesting how sensitive prices may be to new information

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

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- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=sagan-tosu-vs-gainare-tottori-more-markets

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