# Sagan Tosu vs. Reilac Shiga

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 41% across 20 contracts — refreshed 14 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/sagan-tosu-vs-reilac-shiga
Updated: 2026-05-03T16:51:04.394Z
Category: general
Status: active

## Headline

- Probability: 41% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Polymarket (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Renofa Yamaguchi FC (-1.5) | 33¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/reilac-shiga-vs-renofa-yamaguchi-fc-more-markets-r-polymarket-0xd7af9502399881d796357dd1c2f135082cb1f7e26bdbcfc217a11880009bfee6 |
| Both Teams to Score | 51¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/sagan-tosu-vs-gainare-tottori-more-markets-both-te-polymarket-0xc62c8052b88eabaf7fbba8ed2266f84cd1e1cffbed7ad97d4003e6dc8d513ca6 |
| Sagan Tosu (-2.5) | 33¢ | +4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/sagan-tosu-vs-gainare-tottori-more-markets-sagan-t-polymarket-0x5900f7e742db7839d3896d8c530bc6a6c5022b3f22a6119cb5ca7546291bc899 |
| Reilac Shiga (-2.5) | 32¢ | +4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/reilac-shiga-vs-renofa-yamaguchi-fc-more-markets-r-polymarket-0xdd3092e342d7ec1e30755e4b3aef3551cbc790635a037482ad92955c4e8c9e74 |
| Sagan Tosu (-1.5) | 33¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/sagan-tosu-vs-gainare-tottori-more-markets-sagan-t-polymarket-0xde051c4f9072d30ef1a54c22875e34aee124590306fc49e7b41e01fc297ef56b |
| O/U 1.5 | 65¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/reilac-shiga-vs-renofa-yamaguchi-fc-more-markets-o-polymarket-0x303510bcb696aba478484a929f96eb9bf76361a3140c8c6f2032dfad8c073c8a |
| O/U 2.5 | 54¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/sagan-tosu-vs-gainare-tottori-more-markets-ou-25-polymarket-0x2d68ef538060e39f821c7b567407e6bd8d67066d9685038cc748cb2c8fd45be9 |
| O/U 3.5 | 41¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/sagan-tosu-vs-gainare-tottori-more-markets-ou-35-polymarket-0x57869b63e71fd2eaa7d4772e0867a99e3109e15620fde4daf168820a4f8a5019 |
| Reilac Shiga (-1.5) | 33¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/reilac-shiga-vs-renofa-yamaguchi-fc-more-markets-r-polymarket-0x0f5665c225149dbe84afa4e40a1bd581aee9d37ee89f4e53a31e4ebf9371f01a |
| O/U 3.5 | 37¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/reilac-shiga-vs-renofa-yamaguchi-fc-more-markets-o-polymarket-0xae5a2b87d29499e06bc927e017f1f5c9df30ba4b3799e5ceb7b69126c1ff2d40 |
| O/U 1.5 | 65¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/sagan-tosu-vs-gainare-tottori-more-markets-ou-15-polymarket-0xb085f45a735169eb9ef7d0bd0108825a4816d73a567acf02e04169d03530d24e |
| Gainare Tottori (-1.5) | 33¢ | +4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/sagan-tosu-vs-gainare-tottori-more-markets-gainare-polymarket-0xe81828ca36aab01b297bf67fd646d0c2907d7df576ef42e4f8fbba3e8d2da3a4 |
| Gainare Tottori | 36¢ | −8pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/sagan-tosu-vs-gainare-tottori-gainare-tottori-polymarket-0x2e8cb983805f1ebb56d435554c8a2d299d1afcbcabdfcb96fd445e1de2f9fdb0 |
| Renofa Yamaguchi FC (-2.5) | 34¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/reilac-shiga-vs-renofa-yamaguchi-fc-more-markets-r-polymarket-0xaaeaf2cfb3eb39e114b42dd4dc45970dcd84501e1848e33fcde5cf933f6f2a40 |
| Reilac Shiga | 50¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/reilac-shiga-vs-renofa-yamaguchi-fc-reilac-shiga-polymarket-0x6e16efb90d61db052428897a4bb259a4e7cdeafb3f78c51e9aa942bbac811cf2 |
| Renofa Yamaguchi FC | 36¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/reilac-shiga-vs-renofa-yamaguchi-fc-renofa-yamaguc-polymarket-0x7b995500bba09d32d5b82847dbd3ab7597a41ffebfd6a6f1e2a5ee2b5eff5972 |
| O/U 2.5 | 53¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/reilac-shiga-vs-renofa-yamaguchi-fc-more-markets-o-polymarket-0x03536323a1a8f83abdf45667871bd0f123440908e6f273e298292df61148ec63 |
| Draw (Reilac Shiga vs. Renofa Yamaguchi FC) | 35¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/reilac-shiga-vs-renofa-yamaguchi-fc-draw-reilac-sh-polymarket-0x164ec0b51bc7d1d5f554122da787da06e8ed8f2b787968b7a8b536dd45e64d6f |
| Draw (Sagan Tosu vs. Gainare Tottori) | 35¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/sagan-tosu-vs-gainare-tottori-draw-sagan-tosu-vs-g-polymarket-0x8bfb29652d58dcbbe33735f50ac6022d2825b58b3208952d56868a2a59de1d08 |
| Gainare Tottori (-2.5) | 35¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/sagan-tosu-vs-gainare-tottori-more-markets-gainare-polymarket-0x00cdc863684fd3e4ee696cbf0834c6bcc97af7e2a4500b2e97b8d1709d5a8c9f |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 40 |
| 2026-05-02 | 42 |
| 2026-05-03 | 44 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · Gainare Tottori −8pp 40→32¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Sagan Tosu (-2.5) +4pp 32→36¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Reilac Shiga (-2.5) +4pp 32→36¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Gainare Tottori (-1.5) +4pp 33→37¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Renofa Yamaguchi FC (-1.5) +3pp 33→36¢ · polymarket

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/sagan-tosu-vs-reilac-shiga
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=sagan-tosu-vs-reilac-shiga

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.