# Sagan Tosu vs. Tegevajaro Miyazaki

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 43% across 20 contracts — refreshed 4 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/sagan-tosu-vs-tegevajaro-miyazaki
Updated: 2026-05-03T16:35:55.583Z
Category: general
Status: active

## Headline

- Probability: 43% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Polymarket (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sagan Tosu | 51¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/sagan-tosu-vs-gainare-tottori-sagan-tosu-polymarket-0x54360a68e99704e81cc052d62460ea06e0f7b4f76c4e3b81d32c670013b60fc4 |
| Both Teams to Score | 51¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/sagan-tosu-vs-gainare-tottori-more-markets-both-te-polymarket-0xc62c8052b88eabaf7fbba8ed2266f84cd1e1cffbed7ad97d4003e6dc8d513ca6 |
| Sagan Tosu (-2.5) | 33¢ | +4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/sagan-tosu-vs-gainare-tottori-more-markets-sagan-t-polymarket-0x5900f7e742db7839d3896d8c530bc6a6c5022b3f22a6119cb5ca7546291bc899 |
| Tegevajaro Miyazaki (-2.5) | 33¢ | +5pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/tegevajaro-miyazaki-vs-fc-ryky-more-markets-tegeva-polymarket-0xeba8015dbf05cbf409b2c78e871f712f738975cbbdc238bd4f878afdd4a7f645 |
| O/U 2.5 | 54¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/tegevajaro-miyazaki-vs-fc-ryky-more-markets-ou-25-polymarket-0x4ff230980f419d689a8012e22a7b3178862c5c5a461d646a2cb9dc02e4f60214 |
| Sagan Tosu (-1.5) | 33¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/sagan-tosu-vs-gainare-tottori-more-markets-sagan-t-polymarket-0xde051c4f9072d30ef1a54c22875e34aee124590306fc49e7b41e01fc297ef56b |
| O/U 4.5 | 29¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/tegevajaro-miyazaki-vs-fc-ryky-more-markets-ou-45-polymarket-0x0bd2ca80c5b4eb69938a57960a50cf81c58ed72f75e16fa5571ca48fcdea5488 |
| FC Ryūkyū (-1.5) | 33¢ | +5pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/tegevajaro-miyazaki-vs-fc-ryky-more-markets-fc-ryk-polymarket-0xc6d7d588de26b5dbb7a78c7a34e12fc319326a755cea73b832c0511423c43edc |
| O/U 2.5 | 54¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/sagan-tosu-vs-gainare-tottori-more-markets-ou-25-polymarket-0x2d68ef538060e39f821c7b567407e6bd8d67066d9685038cc748cb2c8fd45be9 |
| O/U 3.5 | 41¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/sagan-tosu-vs-gainare-tottori-more-markets-ou-35-polymarket-0x57869b63e71fd2eaa7d4772e0867a99e3109e15620fde4daf168820a4f8a5019 |
| FC Ryūkyū (-2.5) | 35¢ | +4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/tegevajaro-miyazaki-vs-fc-ryky-more-markets-fc-ryk-polymarket-0x8122eecb61ff7994a30cd8642e7251cb932f7f149181dde3b3fc291ab69788bf |
| Draw (Tegevajaro Miyazaki vs. FC Ryūkyū) | 35¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/tegevajaro-miyazaki-vs-fc-ryky-draw-tegevajaro-miy-polymarket-0x3740060edeffd09a418eb5616067ae79c89d4f023d4530f8bd43557d0c0a53c4 |
| Tegevajaro Miyazaki (-1.5) | 33¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/tegevajaro-miyazaki-vs-fc-ryky-more-markets-tegeva-polymarket-0xf4a4fac8c8d180a8abfa3fac6a9fc1feb8683e02796fcb29a72114d07544188d |
| O/U 1.5 | 65¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/sagan-tosu-vs-gainare-tottori-more-markets-ou-15-polymarket-0xb085f45a735169eb9ef7d0bd0108825a4816d73a567acf02e04169d03530d24e |
| O/U 3.5 | 36¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/tegevajaro-miyazaki-vs-fc-ryky-more-markets-ou-35-polymarket-0x1caf6962e8fbf49f66b536026e037761fcd47ab75afe9af74bbb531929699174 |
| O/U 1.5 | 65¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/tegevajaro-miyazaki-vs-fc-ryky-more-markets-ou-15-polymarket-0xac71aa6aeeb0de74d6631af7f06f26aa7c78677554fa3a09866effb753dcfa1b |
| Both Teams to Score | 53¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/tegevajaro-miyazaki-vs-fc-ryky-more-markets-both-t-polymarket-0x37d876a9d5f7655defa7ea2238dc0240eaefa3782067817a5a9dea7340ba81d9 |
| Gainare Tottori (-1.5) | 33¢ | +4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/sagan-tosu-vs-gainare-tottori-more-markets-gainare-polymarket-0xe81828ca36aab01b297bf67fd646d0c2907d7df576ef42e4f8fbba3e8d2da3a4 |
| Gainare Tottori | 37¢ | −8pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/sagan-tosu-vs-gainare-tottori-gainare-tottori-polymarket-0x2e8cb983805f1ebb56d435554c8a2d299d1afcbcabdfcb96fd445e1de2f9fdb0 |
| Tegevajaro Miyazaki | 50¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/tegevajaro-miyazaki-vs-fc-ryky-tegevajaro-miyazaki-polymarket-0xc2e6a4403ddfe0b9778e6586ce822520d2c7df44690c2fe7ac4ee233ff0e5682 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 43 |
| 2026-05-02 | 43 |
| 2026-05-03 | 44 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · Gainare Tottori −8pp 40→32¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Tegevajaro Miyazaki (-2.5) +5pp 32→37¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · FC Ryūkyū (-1.5) +5pp 33→38¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Sagan Tosu (-2.5) +4pp 32→36¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · FC Ryūkyū (-2.5) +4pp 34→38¢ · polymarket

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/sagan-tosu-vs-tegevajaro-miyazaki
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=sagan-tosu-vs-tegevajaro-miyazaki

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.