# Will South Africa GDP growth rate QoQ for Q1 2026 be above 0.4%

> Above 0.0% leads at 81%, runner-up 62% across 7 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 16 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/sagdpqoq
Updated: 2026-05-29T22:20:07.329Z
Category: economy · Topic: recession
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-03

## Headline

- Leader: Above 0.0% at 81%
- Runner-up: Above 0.2% at 62%
- Outcomes: 7 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $3K

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 0.0% | 81¢ | — | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-south-africa-gdp-growth-rate-qoq-for-q1-2026-kalshi-kxsagdpqoq-26jun03-t0.0 |
| Above 0.2% | 62¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-south-africa-gdp-growth-rate-qoq-for-q1-2026-kalshi-kxsagdpqoq-26jun03-t0.2 |
| Above 0.4% | 46¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-south-africa-gdp-growth-rate-qoq-for-q1-2026-kalshi-kxsagdpqoq-26jun03-t0.4 |
| Above 0.6% | 29¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-south-africa-gdp-growth-rate-qoq-for-q1-2026-kalshi-kxsagdpqoq-26jun03-t0.6 |
| Above 0.8% | 14¢ | — | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-south-africa-gdp-growth-rate-qoq-for-q1-2026-kalshi-kxsagdpqoq-26jun03-t0.8 |
| Above 1.0% | 11¢ | ±0 | $1 | kalshi | /markets/will-south-africa-gdp-growth-rate-qoq-for-q1-2026-kalshi-kxsagdpqoq-26jun03-t1.0 |
| Above 1.2% | 7¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-south-africa-gdp-growth-rate-qoq-for-q1-2026-kalshi-kxsagdpqoq-26jun03-t1.2 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 0.0% | Above 0.2% | Above 0.4% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-26 | 83 | 64 | 43 |
| 2026-05-27 | — | 62 | — |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-27 · Above 0.6% +3pp 26→29¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

Markets are pricing an 84% chance that South Africa's economy contracted less than it might have, or grew slightly, in Q1 2026 on a quarter-over-quarter basis. The probability drops sharply as the growth threshold rises: only 46% of traders expect growth above 0.4%, and just 14% expect it above 0.8%. South Africa's economic performance depends heavily on electricity supply stability, commodity prices, and manufacturing activity. The official GDP data release from Statistics South Africa—typically published 5–7 weeks after quarter-end—will provide the definitive reading and resolve all contracts. Until then, recent load-shedding trends, electricity generation capacity additions, and global commodity demand will shape expectations.

### Key factors

- South Africa's actual Q1 2026 QoQ GDP figure will be released by Statistics South Africa, likely in late June or early July 2026, providing the only authoritative resolution
- Electricity load-shedding severity and generation capacity in Q1 2026 directly constrain manufacturing and services output, and any sustained grid improvements or deterioration would shift growth expectations
- Global commodity prices (especially platinum and iron ore) and rand exchange rates influence export revenues and import costs, affecting aggregate demand
- Manufacturing PMI, business confidence indices, and employment data released during April–May 2026 serve as advance indicators that traders use to adjust contract prices
- The steepness of the probability decline across thresholds (84% → 46% → 14%) indicates substantial uncertainty about whether growth will be weak-positive, flat, or negative

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

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- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/recession

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