# Will Artemis SailGP Team win the 2026 SailGP Championship

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 16% across 6 contracts — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/sailgp
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:38.390Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-21

## Headline

- Probability: 16% (liquidity-weighted across 6 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Gallos | 7¢ | +1pp | $415 | kalshi | /markets/will-los-gallos-win-the-2026-sailgp-championship-l-kalshi-kxsailgp-26-esp |
| Emirates GBR | 24¢ | ±0 | $250 | kalshi | /markets/will-emirates-gbr-win-the-2026-sailgp-championship-kalshi-kxsailgp-26-gbr |
| United States SailGP Team | 12¢ | +1pp | $236 | kalshi | /markets/will-united-states-sailgp-team-win-the-2026-sailgp-kalshi-kxsailgp-26-usa |
| Artemis SailGP Team | 5¢ | — | $221 | kalshi | /markets/will-artemis-sailgp-team-win-the-2026-sailgp-champ-kalshi-kxsailgp-26-art |
| Bonds Flying Roos | 41¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bonds-flying-roos-win-the-2026-sailgp-champio-kalshi-kxsailgp-26-aus |
| France SailGP Team | 6¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-france-sailgp-team-win-the-2026-sailgp-champi-kalshi-kxsailgp-26-fra |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 12 |
| 2026-04-25 | 11 |
| 2026-05-02 | 17 |
| 2026-05-08 | 41 |

_21 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · Bonds Flying Roos +20pp 20→40¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Emirates GBR +6pp 22→28¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Emirates GBR −5pp 27→22¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · United States SailGP Team +5pp 5→10¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Emirates GBR +4pp 23→27¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This represents the estimated likelihood that Artemis SailGP Team will win the 2026 SailGP Championship, currently assessed at 12%. The probability reflects the team's competitive standing relative to other SailGP franchises heading into 2026. Key drivers of this probability include Artemis's historical race performance, crew composition and stability, boat development progress, and performance relative to competitors like New Zealand, British, and Swiss teams who typically contend for titles. The championship unfolds across multiple races throughout 2026, with results from early-season events (likely April-May) providing the most immediate data points that would adjust the probability significantly. Teams demonstrating consistent podium finishes and tactical execution would see odds improve, while early elimination or multiple losses would lower them.

### Key factors

- Artemis's finishing position and point accumulation in the first 3-4 SailGP events of the 2026 season
- Crew performance metrics including helm consistency, strategy execution, and boat handling relative to top competitors
- Budget and technical innovation investment compared to other SailGP teams with demonstrated recent championship wins
- Historical head-to-head racing records between Artemis and the current season's top-seeded teams
- Any roster changes, coaching staff adjustments, or technical penalties that affect team competitiveness before mid-season

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/sailgp
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=sailgp

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.