# Will Artemis SailGP Team win the 2026 Bermuda Sail Grand Prix

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 8% across 11 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/sailgprace
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:39.629Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-08-08

## Headline

- Probability: 8% (liquidity-weighted across 11 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (11 contracts)
- 24h volume: $100

## Bound contracts (11)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Artemis SailGP Team | 10¢ | +3pp | $100 | kalshi | /markets/will-artemis-sailgp-team-win-the-2026-new-york-sai-kalshi-kxsailgprace-26ny-art |
| Bonds Flying Roos | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bonds-flying-roos-win-the-2026-canada-sail-gr-kalshi-kxsailgprace-26can-aus |
| Bonds Flying Roos | 22¢ | −15pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bonds-flying-roos-win-the-2026-new-york-sail-kalshi-kxsailgprace-26ny-aus |
| Emirates GBR | 16¢ | −10pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-emirates-gbr-win-the-2026-new-york-sail-grand-kalshi-kxsailgprace-26ny-gbr |
| France SailGP Team | 6¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-france-sailgp-team-win-the-2026-new-york-sail-kalshi-kxsailgprace-26ny-fra |
| Germany SailGP Team | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-germany-sailgp-team-win-the-2026-new-york-sai-kalshi-kxsailgprace-26ny-ger |
| Los Gallos | 10¢ | +6pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-los-gallos-win-the-2026-new-york-sail-grand-p-kalshi-kxsailgprace-26ny-esp |
| NorthStar Canada | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-northstar-canada-win-the-2026-new-york-sail-g-kalshi-kxsailgprace-26ny-can |
| Red Bull Italy | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-red-bull-italy-win-the-2026-new-york-sail-gra-kalshi-kxsailgprace-26ny-ita |
| Rockwool Racing | 3¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-rockwool-racing-win-the-2026-new-york-sail-gr-kalshi-kxsailgprace-26ny-den |
| United States SailGP Team | 10¢ | +7pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-united-states-sailgp-team-win-the-2026-new-yo-kalshi-kxsailgprace-26ny-usa |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | 2 |
| 2026-05-07 | 21 |
| 2026-05-08 | 7 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · Bonds Flying Roos +20pp 2→22¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · Emirates GBR +17pp 2→19¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-08 · Bonds Flying Roos −15pp 22→7¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-08 · Emirates GBR −10pp 19→9¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-08 · United States SailGP Team +7pp 2→9¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 12% probability represents the current market assessment of Artemis SailGP Team's chances of winning the 2026 Bermuda Sail Grand Prix. The low probability suggests that competing teams, particularly Bonds Flying Roos (23%) and Emirates GBR (16%), are viewed as stronger contenders. Artemis's relatively low odds reflect either historical performance gaps, roster composition, or recent season results compared to rivals. The main catalyst for this probability will be the actual race event in Bermuda, where live performance data and conditions will determine the outcome. Factors that could shift expectations include team roster announcements, performance in preliminary races leading up to Bermuda, crew changes, boat modifications, and weather conditions during the event. Current trading volume of zero across all contracts suggests limited market activity, indicating this is primarily a reference probability rather than an actively arbitraged position.

### Key factors

- Artemis's current 12% odds trail all other named top contenders, with Bonds Flying Roos at 23% being the market favorite
- Team composition, recent season standings, and historical performance at Bermuda courses likely inform the probability differential
- Race conditions in Bermuda, including wind patterns and water state on event day, will materially affect all teams' performance
- Preliminary race results or team announcements between now and the event could shift market expectations
- Zero 24-hour trading volume across all five contracts indicates limited current market liquidity and suggests this may reflect structural market odds rather than active price discovery

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/sailgprace
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=sailgprace

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.