# Will the South Africa inflation rate MoM for May 2026 be above 1.0%

> Above 0.6% leads at 74%, runner-up 59% across 8 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 23 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/samominf
Updated: 2026-05-28T20:20:08.155Z
Category: economy · Topic: recession
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-17

## Headline

- Leader: Above 0.6% at 74%
- Runner-up: Above 0.8% at 59%
- Outcomes: 8 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (8 contracts)
- 24h volume: $211

## Bound contracts (8)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 0.6% | 74¢ | +29pp | $12 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-south-africa-inflation-rate-mom-for-may-2-kalshi-kxsamominf-26jun17-t0.6 |
| Above 0.8% | 59¢ | +23pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-south-africa-inflation-rate-mom-for-may-2-kalshi-kxsamominf-26jun17-t0.8 |
| Above 1.0% | 46¢ | +19pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-south-africa-inflation-rate-mom-for-may-2-kalshi-kxsamominf-26jun17-t1.0 |
| Above 1.2% | 24¢ | +10pp | $85 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-south-africa-inflation-rate-mom-for-may-2-kalshi-kxsamominf-26jun17-t1.2 |
| Above 1.4% | 16¢ | +11pp | $101 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-south-africa-inflation-rate-mom-for-may-2-kalshi-kxsamominf-26jun17-t1.4 |
| Above 1.6% | 10¢ | +7pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-south-africa-inflation-rate-mom-for-may-2-kalshi-kxsamominf-26jun17-t1.6 |
| Above 1.8% | 9¢ | +6pp | $11 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-south-africa-inflation-rate-mom-for-may-2-kalshi-kxsamominf-26jun17-t1.8 |
| Above 2.0% | 6¢ | +5pp | $2 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-south-africa-inflation-rate-mom-for-may-2-kalshi-kxsamominf-26jun17-t2.0 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 0.6% | Above 0.8% | Above 1.0% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-26 | 35 | 29 | 19 |
| 2026-05-27 | 64 | 52 | 38 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-27 · Above 0.6% +29pp 35→64¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-27 · Above 0.8% +23pp 29→52¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-27 · Above 1.0% +19pp 19→38¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-27 · Above 1.4% +11pp 5→16¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-27 · Above 1.2% +10pp 7→17¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market reflects uncertainty about whether South Africa's month-over-month inflation rate for May 2026 will exceed 1.0%. The current probability of 50% suggests traders expect relatively modest monthly inflation, though contract prices show sharp decline in probability at higher thresholds—only 24¢ above 1.2% and 3¢ above 2.0%. South Africa's inflation environment depends on rand currency strength, fuel price movements, and food commodity costs. The May CPI data release from Statistics South Africa will definitively resolve this question; that announcement date serves as the key catalyst. Until then, traders are pricing meaningful uncertainty about whether monthly pressures will remain subdued or accelerate beyond typical ranges seen in recent months.

### Key factors

- South African fuel price dynamics in May 2026 and their pass-through to consumer baskets, which represent a material component of CPI
- Rand exchange rate movement against the dollar, since South Africa imports commodities and energy priced in foreign currency
- Food inflation trajectory, particularly for staple goods that carry high weight in the CPI basket
- Recent trend in month-over-month CPI readings leading into May to establish baseline expectations for momentum
- Statistics South Africa's official CPI release date and any preliminary data or surveys released before the final announcement

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/samominf
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=samominf
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/recession

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.