# San Diego FC vs. Los Angeles FC

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 38% across 20 contracts — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/san-diego-fc-vs-los-angeles-fc
Updated: 2026-05-03T14:50:23.216Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-03

## Headline

- Probability: 38% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 37% / Polymarket 39% — 2pp spread
- 24h volume: $20K

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Antonio vs Los Angeles L | 5¢ | +1pp | $11K | kalshi | /markets/will-san-antonio-vs-los-angeles-l-be-the-matchup-i-kalshi-kxteamsinnbawf-26-saslal |
| Vancouver Surge | 13¢ | +2pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-vancouver-surge-win-the-los-angeles-thieves-v-kalshi-kxcodgame-26may031500latvan-van |
| Nithya Raman vs. Karen Bass | 53¢ | −7pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-nithya-raman-and-karen-bass-be-the-nominees-i-kalshi-kxlamayormatchup-26jun-nramkbas |
| Los Angeles Thieves | 85¢ | +3pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-los-angeles-thieves-win-the-los-angeles-thiev-kalshi-kxcodgame-26may031500latvan-lat |
| Nithya Raman vs. Spencer Pratt | 23¢ | −7pp | $632 | kalshi | /markets/will-nithya-raman-and-spencer-pratt-be-the-nominee-kalshi-kxlamayormatchup-26jun-nramspra |
| Over 4.5 maps | 18¢ | −17pp | $594 | kalshi | /markets/will-over-45-maps-be-played-in-the-los-angeles-thi-kalshi-kxcodtotalmaps-26may031500latvan-5 |
| Karen Bass vs. Spencer Pratt | 25¢ | +3pp | $526 | kalshi | /markets/will-karen-bass-and-spencer-pratt-be-the-nominees-kalshi-kxlamayormatchup-26jun-kbasspra |
| Los Angeles Thieves | 54¢ | −2pp | $512 | kalshi | /markets/will-los-angeles-thieves-win-map-2-in-the-los-ange-kalshi-kxcodmap-26may031500latvan-2-lat |
| Over 3.5 maps | 55¢ | −23pp | $312 | kalshi | /markets/will-over-35-maps-be-played-in-the-los-angeles-thi-kalshi-kxcodtotalmaps-26may031500latvan-4 |
| Los Angeles Thieves | 75¢ | ±0 | $86 | kalshi | /markets/will-los-angeles-thieves-win-map-1-in-the-los-ange-kalshi-kxcodmap-26may031500latvan-1-lat |
| Vancouver Surge | 17¢ | ±0 | $50 | kalshi | /markets/will-vancouver-surge-win-map-1-in-the-los-angeles-kalshi-kxcodmap-26may031500latvan-1-van |
| Spencer Pratt vs. Adam Miller | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-spencer-pratt-and-adam-miller-be-the-nominees-kalshi-kxlamayormatchup-26jun-spraamil |
| New York City FC | 49¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/new-york-city-fc-vs-los-angeles-fc-new-york-city-f-polymarket-0x07aa441123aa310a7949312c6233f1d291bd78e1fe5da57c94fa1f4d03c40a4c |
| Vancouver Surge | 16¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-vancouver-surge-win-map-3-in-the-los-angeles-kalshi-kxcodmap-26may031500latvan-3-van |
| Vancouver Surge | 38¢ | −6pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-vancouver-surge-win-map-2-in-the-los-angeles-kalshi-kxcodmap-26may031500latvan-2-van |
| O/U 2.5 | 54¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/new-york-city-fc-vs-los-angeles-fc-more-markets-ou-polymarket-0xfb53dd6e13e99ece1a90b3bc7f0934ba6bdf58aef1c18fd059cd33befde82bf6 |
| New York City FC (-2.5) | 31¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/new-york-city-fc-vs-los-angeles-fc-more-markets-ne-polymarket-0x749d6005cbd935d0457b1ba46084f8fed6e75daea118208b0a6f978d36a9214e |
| Los Angeles Thieves | 75¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-los-angeles-thieves-win-map-3-in-the-los-ange-kalshi-kxcodmap-26may031500latvan-3-lat |
| O/U 3.5 | 36¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/new-york-city-fc-vs-los-angeles-fc-more-markets-ou-polymarket-0x087e96b348af724088fc5c0c9620932971bbee21079bd0619bac94f9d8554031 |
| New York City FC (-1.5) | 27¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/new-york-city-fc-vs-los-angeles-fc-more-markets-ne-polymarket-0x52ecc53ae751a4a04406a38d2eae3d0bb5c00a4010daf306acb60d6c2f391539 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | 20 |
| 2026-04-18 | 16 |
| 2026-04-26 | 15 |
| 2026-05-03 | 36 |

_21 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-01 · Over 3.5 maps +43pp 10→53¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Over 3.5 maps −23pp 56→33¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Over 4.5 maps −17pp 20→3¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Over 4.5 maps +10pp 10→20¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-01 · Over 4.5 maps +8pp 2→10¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/san-diego-fc-vs-los-angeles-fc
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=san-diego-fc-vs-los-angeles-fc

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.