# San Diego FC vs. Portland Timbers

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 24% across 3 contracts — refreshed 54 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/san-diego-fc-vs-portland-timbers
Updated: 2026-06-26T03:20:49.614Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2028-10-31

## Headline

- Probability: 24% (liquidity-weighted across 3 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $182

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego | 39¢ | +9pp | $182 | kalshi | /markets/pro-baseball-playoff-qualifiers-san-diego-kalshi-kxmlbplayoffs-26-sd |
| 90+ wins | 8¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-san-diego-win-at-least-90-games-this-season-9-kalshi-kxmlbwins-sd-26-t90 |
| 85+ wins | 25¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-san-diego-win-at-least-85-games-this-season-8-kalshi-kxmlbwins-sd-26-t85 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 49 |
| 2026-06-12 | 23 |
| 2026-06-19 | 20 |
| 2026-06-25 | 26 |

_30 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-20 · San Diego −11pp 30→19¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · San Diego +9pp 22→31¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · San Diego +9pp 31→40¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-19 · San Diego +4pp 26→30¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · 85+ wins +4pp 24→28¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 17% probability reflects market expectations that San Diego FC will defeat Portland Timbers in an upcoming match. The low probability suggests bettors favor Portland or expect a draw. The assessment likely reflects San Diego's recent performance record, current team composition, and head-to-head dynamics against Portland. Key factors include home-field advantage, injury status of key players, recent form in the league standings, and Portland's defensive capabilities. The match outcome will be determined on the scheduled game date, providing immediate resolution. Market participants are weighting historical win rates and current season statistics heavily, given the limited volume on these contracts suggests relatively few traders are positioned on this outcome. The probability could shift significantly if major roster changes or injury updates occur before kickoff.

### Key factors

- San Diego's current win-loss record and goals-for/against differential compared to Portland's defensive statistics this season
- Home or away designation for the match, as MLS teams typically show measurable performance variance based on venue
- Injury or suspension status of starting players for either team, particularly offensive playmakers or defensive anchors
- Head-to-head historical performance between San Diego FC and Portland Timbers in recent matchups
- Current league table position and playoff qualification trajectory for both teams as of the match date

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/san-diego-fc-vs-portland-timbers
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=san-diego-fc-vs-portland-timbers

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