# San Diego Wave FC vs. Bay FC

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 39% across 19 contracts — refreshed 5 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/san-diego-wave-fc-vs-bay-fc
Updated: 2026-05-03T14:50:31.810Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-03

## Headline

- Probability: 39% (liquidity-weighted across 19 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 41% / Polymarket 9% — 32pp spread
- 24h volume: $248K

## Bound contracts (19)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay | 54¢ | +4pp | $136K | kalshi | /markets/san-francisco-vs-tampa-bay-winner-tampa-bay-kalshi-kxmlbgame-26may031340sftb-tb |
| Chicago WS | 37¢ | +2pp | $32K | kalshi | /markets/chicago-ws-vs-san-diego-winner-chicago-ws-kalshi-kxmlbgame-26may031610cwssd-cws |
| San Francisco | 45¢ | −1pp | $28K | kalshi | /markets/san-francisco-vs-tampa-bay-winner-san-francisco-kalshi-kxmlbgame-26may031340sftb-sf |
| San Diego | 62¢ | ±0 | $21K | kalshi | /markets/chicago-ws-vs-san-diego-winner-san-diego-kalshi-kxmlbgame-26may031610cwssd-sd |
| Over 8.5 runs scored | 48¢ | +2pp | $11K | kalshi | /markets/san-francisco-vs-tampa-bay-total-runs-over-85-runs-kalshi-kxmlbtotal-26may031340sftb-9 |
| San Diego wins by over 1.5 runs | 44¢ | +1pp | $7K | kalshi | /markets/san-diego-wins-by-over-15-runs-san-diego-wins-by-o-kalshi-kxmlbspread-26may031610cwssd-sd2 |
| Yes | 48¢ | +3pp | $6K | kalshi | /markets/chicago-ws-vs-san-diego-first-inning-run-yes-kalshi-kxmlbrfi-26may031610cwssd |
| Yes | 47¢ | −1pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/san-francisco-vs-tampa-bay-first-inning-run-yes-kalshi-kxmlbrfi-26may031340sftb |
| San Diego | 8¢ | ±0 | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-san-diego-be-the-2026-nl-west-division-winner-kalshi-kxmlbnlwest-26-sd |
| Over 6.5 runs scored | 67¢ | +4pp | $859 | kalshi | /markets/san-francisco-vs-tampa-bay-total-runs-over-65-runs-kalshi-kxmlbtotal-26may031340sftb-7 |
| San Diego | 49¢ | +12pp | $798 | kalshi | /markets/san-diego-vs-san-francisco-winner-san-diego-kalshi-kxmlbgame-26may042145sdsf-sd |
| Robelis Despaigne to win in Round 1 | 39¢ | −21pp | $321 | kalshi | /markets/will-robelis-despaigne-win-the-junior-dos-santos-v-kalshi-kxufcvicround-26may16dosdes-des1 |
| San Diego | 4¢ | −1pp | $250 | kalshi | /markets/will-san-diego-win-the-2026-pro-baseball-national-kalshi-kxmlbnl-26-sd |
| Bay FC | 13¢ | +2pp | $186 | kalshi | /markets/san-diego-wave-fc-vs-bay-fc-winner-bay-fc-kalshi-kxnwslgame-26may03sanbay-bay |
| 85+ wins | 57¢ | +4pp | $162 | kalshi | /markets/will-san-diego-win-at-least-85-games-this-season-8-kalshi-kxmlbwins-sd-26-t85 |
| 90+ wins | 28¢ | −1pp | $40 | kalshi | /markets/will-san-diego-win-at-least-90-games-this-season-9-kalshi-kxmlbwins-sd-26-t90 |
| San Diego Wave FC | 67¢ | +52pp | $3 | kalshi | /markets/san-diego-wave-fc-vs-bay-fc-winner-san-diego-wave-kalshi-kxnwslgame-26may03sanbay-san |
| Tie | 17¢ | +8pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/san-diego-wave-fc-vs-bay-fc-winner-tie-kalshi-kxnwslgame-26may03sanbay-tie |
| 2026 NL West Champion : San Diego Padres | 9¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mlb-2026-nl-west-champion-san-diego-padres-polymarket-0x90803dd7a94b436225e924f9b0e9de30c332fd4d029ee0754d384080486aaa8b |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 19 |
| 2026-04-19 | 25 |
| 2026-04-26 | 23 |
| 2026-05-03 | 40 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · San Diego Wave FC +52pp 14→66¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Robelis Despaigne to win in Round 1 −21pp 42→21¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-01 · Tampa Bay +20pp 28→48¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-01 · San Diego +15pp 44→59¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · San Diego +12pp 34→46¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/san-diego-wave-fc-vs-bay-fc
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=san-diego-wave-fc-vs-bay-fc

## License

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