# San Jose Earthquakes vs. Austin FC

> San Jose leads at 19%, runner-up 3% across 2 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/san-jose-earthquakes-vs-austin-fc
Updated: 2026-06-26T06:20:50.570Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-08

## Headline

- Leader: San Jose at 19%
- Runner-up: San Jose at 3%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $585

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Jose | 19¢ | +1pp | $585 | kalshi | /markets/will-san-jose-win-the-mls-western-conference-san-j-kalshi-kxmlswest-26-sj |
| San Jose | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-san-jose-win-the-mls-cup-san-jose-kalshi-kxmlscup-26-sj |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | San Jose | San Jose |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 19 | — |
| 2026-05-28 | — | 3 |
| 2026-06-11 | — | 2 |
| 2026-06-13 | 17 | — |
| 2026-06-19 | 15 | — |
| 2026-06-21 | — | 3 |
| 2026-06-26 | 19 | 3 |

_18 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This 7% probability reflects market expectations that San Jose Earthquakes will win the 2026 MLS Cup. The low figure reflects San Jose's recent competitive standing within MLS; the team would need sustained regular-season performance and playoff success to shift these odds materially upward. The most relevant catalyst is the 2026 MLS season itself, which determines playoff qualification and seeding. Kalshi's 10% estimate runs 6 percentage points higher than Polymarket's 4%, suggesting disagreement on San Jose's true chances. Both venues show minimal recent trading volume on these contracts, indicating limited market conviction behind the current prices and relatively shallow liquidity.

### Key factors

- San Jose Earthquakes' 2026 regular-season win-loss record and final conference standing will directly determine playoff position and tournament path
- The cross-venue 6-percentage-point gap (Kalshi 10% vs Polymarket 4%) indicates material disagreement on probability, suggesting one market may be mispriced or reflecting different trader bases
- Trading volume is near-zero on all listed contracts over the past 24 hours, indicating low market attention and the possibility that prices reflect few actual trades rather than active consensus
- San Jose's roster composition and injury status through the 2026 season will affect their ability to compete against stronger MLS franchises in a knockout tournament format
- MLS Cup is a single-elimination tournament, meaning even moderately competitive teams face steep odds; baseline probability for a mid-tier team in a 28-team league is substantially below 7%

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/san-jose-earthquakes-vs-austin-fc
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=san-jose-earthquakes-vs-austin-fc

## License

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