# Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Vissel Kōbe

> Sanfrecce Hiroshima leads at 49%, runner-up 28% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 12 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/sanfrecce-hiroshima-vs-vissel-k
Updated: 2026-05-03T19:05:59.856Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-06

## Headline

- Leader: Sanfrecce Hiroshima at 49%
- Runner-up: Draw (Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Vissel Kōbe) at 28%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 49¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/sanfrecce-hiroshima-vs-vissel-kbe-sanfrecce-hirosh-polymarket-0x1c22d58fe1f4283b3f743213ca02560d27ef0bc4caa1c2c59ac63270dce37c68 |
| Draw (Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Vissel Kōbe) | 28¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/sanfrecce-hiroshima-vs-vissel-kbe-draw-sanfrecce-h-polymarket-0x0324afcc79628d5cb7db530670ac87279e66e76dd8d559539e2054bcd63f007a |
| Vissel Kōbe | 25¢ | −3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/sanfrecce-hiroshima-vs-vissel-kbe-vissel-kbe-polymarket-0xdb1e98067fdfaf0fec85bc35a160fe2b145b404623edab084c40ec3cd9029016 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | Draw (Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Vissel Kōbe) | Vissel Kōbe |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 43 | 32 | 33 |
| 2026-05-02 | 49 | 30 | 30 |
| 2026-05-03 | 49 | — | — |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima +6pp 43→49¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · Vissel Kōbe −3pp 33→30¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This represents the market's assessment that Sanfrecce Hiroshima has a 48% chance of winning an upcoming match against Vissel Kōbe, with a 28% probability assigned to a draw and 24% to a Kōbe victory. The probability reflects Hiroshima's current positioning as slight favorites, likely based on recent form, head-to-head records, or home-field advantage. The outcome will be determined when the match concludes, with contract resolution depending on the final score. Key drivers of movement would include team injury updates, lineup changes, or shifts in recent performance trends in the J-League season. Low trading volume across contracts suggests limited recent market activity, potentially indicating either consensus pricing or minimal new information entering the market.

### Key factors

- Sanfrecce Hiroshima priced at 48% vs. Vissel Kōbe at 24%, indicating modest but not substantial favorite status
- Draw outcome valued at 28%, suggesting reasonable probability of a stalemate in this matchup
- Zero 24-hour trading volume across all contracts indicates minimal recent market recalibration or new information
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima (-1.5) spread priced at 23¢ suggests less conviction in a decisive home victory
- Both Teams to Score contract at 55¢ indicates market expects an open, attacking match despite Hiroshima being slight favorites

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/sanfrecce-hiroshima-vs-vissel-k
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=sanfrecce-hiroshima-vs-vissel-k

## License

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