# Will Carlos Vila Nova win the 2026 São Toméan presidential election

> Closed. Last odds frozen 4 h ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/saotomepres
Updated: 2026-07-23T19:20:51.801Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: historical
Closes: 2027-07-19

## Headline

- Probability: 5% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Kalshi (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eugénio Tiny | 5¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-eugnio-tiny-win-the-2026-so-toman-presidentia-kalshi-kxsaotomepres-26jul19-etin |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-08 | 3 |
| 2026-07-09 | 2 |
| 2026-07-12 | 1 |
| 2026-07-19 | 5 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-19 · Eugénio Tiny +4pp 1→5¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that incumbent Carlos Vila Nova will win São Tomé and Príncipe's 2026 presidential election, with a 25% chance of victory. The current assessment sits well below the 91-cent contract price, suggesting potential market fragmentation or disagreement about his viability as a candidate. Key drivers of this probability include Vila Nova's performance as incumbent, the strength of opposition candidates, and voter sentiment in this small island nation. The actual election date will ultimately resolve this uncertainty by revealing which candidate prevails in the voting. Market liquidity remains limited, with daily volumes under $25 across all related contracts, indicating sparse trader participation in these outcomes.

### Key factors

- The Vila Nova contract on Kalshi is priced at 91 cents while the aggregated probability for his victory sits at 25%, suggesting either mispricing or that the 25% figure may not accurately reflect market consensus from this specific contract
- Competing candidates Miques João Bonfim, Eugénio Tiny, and Nito D'Abreu all have minimal contract prices (3-4 cents), indicating very low individual probabilities despite the field being open
- Daily trading volume across all four contracts averages approximately $23, reflecting limited market liquidity and participation that may reduce prediction reliability
- The election date and campaign dynamics in São Tomé and Príncipe, a nation with roughly 230,000 residents, are subject to local political factors that may not be widely tracked in international prediction markets
- No clear frontrunner emerges from contract pricing alone, with Vila Nova as incumbent being distinct from challengers but the overall market fragmentation suggesting genuine uncertainty about the outcome

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/saotomepres
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=saotomepres
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.