# Will Satoshi Nakamoto be identified?

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 10% across 3 contracts — refreshed 51 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/satoshi-identity
Updated: 2026-06-08T05:20:11.774Z
Category: crypto
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Probability: 10% (liquidity-weighted across 3 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $20K

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before January 2027 | 18¢ | −1pp | $18K | kalshi | /markets/will-bitcoin-be-above-10000000-by-jan-1-2027-at-12-kalshi-kxbtcmax100-26-dec |
| Before October 2026 | 8¢ | −1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-bitcoin-be-above-100000-by-october-1-2026-at-kalshi-kxbtcmax100-26-sep |
| Before 2027 | 5¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-satoshi-move-any-bitcoin-by-2027-before-2027-kalshi-kxsatoshibtcyear-27 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 40 |
| 2026-05-25 | 20 |
| 2026-06-01 | 16 |
| 2026-06-08 | 18 |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-04 · Before January 2027 −5pp 28→23¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-01 · Before January 2027 −4pp 33→29¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-02 · Before January 2027 −4pp 29→25¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-06 · Before January 2027 −4pp 21→17¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-03 · Before January 2027 +3pp 25→28¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/satoshi-identity
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=satoshi-identity

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.