# Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin?

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 23% across 6 contracts — refreshed 51 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/satoshi-move-bitcoin
Updated: 2026-06-08T05:20:07.263Z
Category: crypto · Topic: bitcoin
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Probability: 23% (liquidity-weighted across 6 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 10% / Polymarket 36% — 26pp spread
- 24h volume: $23K

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before January 2027 | 18¢ | −1pp | $18K | kalshi | /markets/will-bitcoin-be-above-10000000-by-jan-1-2027-at-12-kalshi-kxbtcmax100-26-dec |
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | 8¢ | +1pp | $2K | polymarket | /markets/will-satoshi-move-any-bitcoin-in-2026-polymarket-0x3b0107a80edd066fe987784d7ab5963c177888433efbec10689951c17320606c |
| Before October 2026 | 8¢ | −1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-bitcoin-be-above-100000-by-october-1-2026-at-kalshi-kxbtcmax100-26-sep |
| Adam Back confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31? | 6¢ | ±0 | $978 | polymarket | /markets/adam-back-confirmed-to-be-satoshi-by-december-31-polymarket-0xecb137754a477f819979831ed887b0fcbc20325682bb5be399146c0d7f9e5f88 |
| Satoshi Nakamoto | 93¢ | −1pp | $1 | polymarket | /markets/nothing-ever-happens-satoshi-nakamoto-polymarket-0xb00e791c299299858a0e333a31b841f51038e6f14321f25eba03c41a5b6f58f7 |
| Before 2027 | 5¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-satoshi-move-any-bitcoin-by-2027-before-2027-kalshi-kxsatoshibtcyear-27 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 40 |
| 2026-05-25 | 20 |
| 2026-06-01 | 35 |
| 2026-06-08 | 39 |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-04 · Before January 2027 −5pp 28→23¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-01 · Before January 2027 −4pp 33→29¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-02 · Before January 2027 −4pp 29→25¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-06 · Before January 2027 −4pp 21→17¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-03 · Before January 2027 +3pp 25→28¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/satoshi-move-bitcoin
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=satoshi-move-bitcoin
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/bitcoin

## License

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