# Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay

> Uruguay leads at 66%, runner-up 21% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/saudi-arabia-vs-uruguay
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:44.153Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-15

## Headline

- Leader: Uruguay at 66%
- Runner-up: Draw (Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay) at 21%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $482

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Uruguay | 66¢ | +1pp | $171 | polymarket | /markets/saudi-arabia-vs-uruguay-uruguay-polymarket-0xbc54d73527785bdc7b443cfdf3b0d59558c5ac2bbffca23425ecfbd161b07317 |
| Draw (Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay) | 21¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/saudi-arabia-vs-uruguay-draw-saudi-arabia-vs-urugu-polymarket-0x344327632a0ab1c28b40003f14bfe75cb7d5bd65c58b4e34199cfc17a77104fe |
| Saudi Arabia | 13¢ | −1pp | $311 | polymarket | /markets/saudi-arabia-vs-uruguay-saudi-arabia-polymarket-0xaec9b992e0d877c321c7789af5d6fb64ad5e339714fb1000e1e97bf14159ea1a |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Uruguay | Draw (Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay) | Saudi Arabia |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | — | 23 | — |
| 2026-05-01 | 65 | 22 | 14 |
| 2026-05-02 | 64 | 22 | 13 |
| 2026-05-03 | 64 | — | — |
| 2026-05-06 | 65 | 23 | — |

_5 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that Uruguay will defeat Saudi Arabia in an upcoming match. The 64% likelihood for Uruguay reflects their historical strength as a two-time World Cup winner with established squad depth, while Saudi Arabia represents a less predictable challenger. Key drivers of the probability include recent team performance records, head-to-head history, and squad composition at match time. The outcome will be determined by the fixture itself, with the specific match date and conditions directly influencing the teams' tactical approaches and player availability. Market pricing may shift significantly based on team news, injury reports, or confirmed lineups released closer to kickoff.

### Key factors

- Uruguay's historical ranking and recent FIFA standings versus Saudi Arabia's current competitive level
- Availability and fitness status of key players for both squads, particularly star performers
- Head-to-head historical match results and goal differential between the two nations
- Match venue, altitude, and climate conditions that may favor one team's playing style
- Recent tournament performance and form of both teams in the weeks leading up to the fixture

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/saudi-arabia-vs-uruguay
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=saudi-arabia-vs-uruguay

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.