# Saudi Professional League

> Winner: Al-Nassr leads at 77%, runner-up 26% across 2 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/saudi-professional-league
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:05:40.489Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-04

## Headline

- Leader: Winner: Al-Nassr at 77%
- Runner-up: Winner: Al-Hilal at 26%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $12

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winner: Al-Nassr | 77¢ | +21pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/saudi-professional-league-winner-al-nassr-polymarket-0x93b425663590ebad9bd991514aa9fb09b79b5e9944ad6a980e345c12b1a76a73 |
| Winner: Al-Hilal | 26¢ | −5pp | $12 | polymarket | /markets/saudi-professional-league-winner-al-hilal-polymarket-0x6a61248a5d4e3340c5e04e85dfeaeec5c36f8b57a55102747cda36eb1cad1b6b |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Winner: Al-Nassr | Winner: Al-Hilal |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | 43 | 58 |
| 2026-05-02 | 44 | 50 |
| 2026-05-08 | 54 | 26 |
| 2026-05-09 | 75 | — |

_10 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-09 · Winner: Al-Nassr +21pp 54→75¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Winner: Al-Hilal −19pp 50→31¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Winner: Al-Nassr +7pp 44→51¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · Winner: Al-Nassr −6pp 50→44¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-08 · Winner: Al-Hilal −5pp 31→26¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This 50% probability indicates that Al-Hilal has roughly even odds of winning the Saudi Professional League title compared to other contenders. The market reflects competing narratives: Al-Hilal's established strength and recent dominance in the league support their favorability, while other elite clubs like Al-Nassr and Al Ahli continue investing heavily in star players and remain competitive threats. The 67% probability that Mohamed Salah joins the Saudi Pro League suggests potential roster changes across clubs could reshape competitive balance. The league season structure and remaining fixture schedule will determine whether Al-Hilal maintains their edge or if title challengers close the gap. Market liquidity is minimal (only one contract trading actively today), meaning probabilities could shift meaningfully with new player transfers, injuries, or strong performance runs down the stretch. The outcome will be resolved at the official end of the 2025-26 SPL season.

### Key factors

- Al-Hilal's historical dominance in SPL (multiple recent titles) vs. current squad depth and fitness of top contenders
- Transfer activity and player acquisitions by Al-Nassr, Al Ahli, and other clubs that could alter competitive balance
- Mohamed Salah's contract status and likelihood of moving to Saudi Pro League, which would materially strengthen one club
- Remaining fixture schedule and head-to-head matchups between title contenders later in the season
- Trading volume of 49¢ contracts is zero over 24h, indicating low market confidence or consensus pricing

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/saudi-professional-league
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=saudi-professional-league

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.