# SAVE Act becomes law by...

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 3% across 1 contract — refreshed 1 d ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/save-act-becomes-law
Updated: 2026-05-08T02:20:17.536Z
Category: legislation
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-31

## Headline

- Probability: 3% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 3¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/save-act-becomes-law-by-may-31-polymarket-0xc473d91381b90b35899b844e25bfae4b5526424244d87b47004f1e11929a7626 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-27 | 34 |
| 2026-05-01 | 5 |
| 2026-05-08 | 2 |

_9 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

The SAVE Act (H.R. 22) is a proposed immigration enforcement bill currently being assessed for passage into law before January 4, 2027. The 4% probability reflects structural headwinds: the measure requires passage through both chambers of Congress and presidential signature, a multi-stage process with limited time remaining in 2026. The probability would shift based on whether the bill advances through committee votes, gains co-sponsor momentum in both chambers, and receives signals of executive support. The most concrete catalyst would be movement through House or Senate committees, which would indicate whether the bill has sufficient backing to reach a floor vote before year-end. Related predictions suggest varied legislative success rates across different proposals, with the SAVE Act specifically facing lower odds than some comparable measures.

### Key factors

- Current House and Senate committee status of H.R. 22, including whether it has been scheduled for hearings or markups
- Number of co-sponsors across both chambers relative to bills that successfully advance to floor votes
- Public statements from House and Senate leadership indicating whether the bill is prioritized in the legislative schedule
- Historical timing: bills require committee passage, floor debate, and reconciliation across two chambers within 233 days (May 2026 to January 2027)
- Administration messaging regarding support or opposition to the bill's specific provisions

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

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- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=save-act-becomes-law

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